N. P. Upadhyaya, Kathmandu: A politically stable and peaceful Afghanistan is in the larger interest of the entire South Asian region and more so to the next door neighbor Pakistan for a variety political reasons as this country has already suffered a lot from the recurring instability in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan was made a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) by India’s ever cursed proxy Prime Minister Dr. Man Mohan Singh around the year 2005.
The SAARC though remains dead and the killer is the known hegemon of the region-India.
Pakistani concerns on Afghanistan appear more than genuine in that the neighboring country’s politics has remained volatile since four decades first with the arrival of the Soviet Union and later the United States.
The forced entrance of the former USSR and the USA into Afghanistan may have different interpretations but the fact is that it were the Afghani nationals each time who have paid the price and have suffered a lot from the very first day(s) of the Soviet invasion or from the coming of the US and the NATO forces in the pretext of taming the fierce Talibani militants.
For example, the exodus of the Afghan refugees immediately after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the poor and the helpless Afghani nationals rushed towards neighboring Pakistan in millions who are still being taken care of by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan since four decades or so on humanitarian grounds.
The immediate neighbor was Pakistan which provided them with the food and the needed shelter.
Thus Pakistan understands as to what a politically distressed Afghanistan means to the country which has, as a result of the Soviet assault on Afghanistan, providing shelters to millions of Afghanistani nationals, as stated earlier, in its territory since four decades or so.
This then obviously compels Pakistan to initiate steps or take measures to assist the already begun actions so that Afghanistan as a nation-state remains an independent nation which administers the nation on its own finally.
The process for ending the war in Afghanistan was set in motion by a Doha, Qatar peace accord of February 29/2020 that was signed in between the USA and the Talibans which largely ignored the government of Afghanistan in office at time of the peace deal. (The Taliban have their main office in Doha, it is learnt).
It was this deliberate or otherwise neglect which perhaps provided some justification to the Afghanistani government under Ashraf Ghani to take the Doha peace process in a light manner for the President saw no role for himself for the prevalence of a permanent peace in Afghanistan.
But President Ghani should have taken in a positive manner in that the deal was to benefit Afghanistan which was after all his own country and he was the President.
This was definitely a matter of personal prestige for the President Ghani. However, he appears to have now reconciled with the things that are with the Afghan government and the people charted by the Doha peace process.
The Doha peace development sadly got several setbacks over these months due to the power tussle in between President Ghani and his arch rival Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.
The climax was very unpleasant when these two political giants claimed that they had won the last Presidential elections and arranged separate ceremonies and declared themselves to have assumed the office of the Afghanistani government.
Dr. Abdullah had observed that the Presidential polls were highly rigged by his immediate opponent-Ashraf Ghani.
Ghani denied tooth and nail.
It was this enlarged folly that enraged the US administration to the extent that the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have had to warn (March/April) the two inimical Afghani leaders that he would cut the US aid in billions that had been earmarked for Afghanistan’s rapid development.
After this real threat from the US Secretary Pompeo that the two rival political luminaries opted not to tease the US led peace process further.
They have now reconciled with each other.
In the meantime, the Indian establishment which was completely ignored by the US administration at time of the Doha accord late February this year, entered Afghanistani political scene secretly and tried to create fissures in between the President Ghani and his political rival Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.
This Indian penetration posed a risk to the entire Doha peace course.
Sensing the likely Indian infiltration and the chances of the peace process being derailed by the frustrated Indian machinations, the Pakistani Chief of the Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa made a sudden dash to the Afghani Capital Kabul the other day.
His visit to Kabul was timely in so many ways which was loaded with political connotation underneath.
General Bajwa’s whirlwind one day tour to Kabul is expected, among others, to have been in line of a U. S led push to encourage the intra-Afghanistan negotiations.
His visit to Kabul assumes greater significance in that the US negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad had met with General Bajwa in Islamabad, June 7/2020, just a day ahead of his Kabul unexpected rush.
This does speak that the US peace negotiator may have appealed the expert-security-hand of Pakistan General Bajwa to proceed to Kabul and meet the two estranged leaders of Afghanistan,
President Ghani and Dr. Abdulla Abdullah and convince them to put their entire efforts in institutionalizing peace in the war torn country setting aside their political differences for the time being.
As any political turbulence in Afghanistan has direct impact on Pakistani security which is why General Bajwa appears to have landed in Kabul and met with the leaders as desired by the US peace negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad.
The visit to Kabul was also in the larger security interest of his country-Pakistan.
International media agencies have said that the Pakistan’s army chief of staff Qamar Javed Bajwa met with the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah during his brief Kabul visit.
General Bajwa met with these two leaders separately.
During the June 9 meetings, the two sides discussed Pakistan’s support of the peace process, the Afghani presidential palace said in a statement released after the meet of the President Ghani with General Qamar Bajwa.
The highest Pakistani military official, accompanied by the country’s intelligence chief and the newly appointed special envoy for Afghanistan, visited Kabul ahead of peace talks between the government and the main insurgent group in Afghanistan.
“Both sides discussed current developments in Afghan Peace Process and necessary steps to be undertaken to facilitate an Afghan led and Afghan owned peace process”, says the statement published from then Presidential Palace.
“Issues related to facilitation of trade and connectivity also came under discussion. Both sides agreed that a dignified and time-bound return of Afghan Refugees from Pakistan is key towards normalcy,” the statement issued after the meeting of General Bajwa with President Ghani notes.
The Afghan president Ashraf Ghani expressed his appreciation for PM Imran for opening the Torkham and Chaman borders and “allowing Afghan transit goods and facilitating stranded Afghans to return to Afghanistan by land and air routes”.
“The Afghani President was also appreciative of the role being played by Pakistan for Afghan Peace Process,” the statement further noted.
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah announced in a Twitter post after meeting the Pakistani Chief of the Army Staff general Bajwa that the two sides “held productive talks” and “stressed on the unique opportunity to further the cause of peace” in Afghanistan and the rest of the region.
Dr. Abdullah said that General Bajwa “expressed Pakistan’s support for our efforts” and “earliest possible start” of intra-Afghan talks between the Taliban and the administration in Kabul.
Notably, the Pakistani team led by General Qamar Javed Bajwa to Kabul included Prime Minister’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq.
In the meantime, a new breakaway Afghan Taliban faction that has reportedly close ties with the neighboring Iran and opposes efforts aimed at ending the 18-year insurgency in Afghanistan has emerged.
The Hezb-e Walayat-e Islami, or Party of Islamic Guardianship, is believed to have split from the mainstream Taliban soon after the United States and the militant group signed a landmark peace agreement in February in Doha.
This means that the new splinter has deep reservations in the deal made in February in the Qatari capital.
Remarkably, Pakistan’s ties with Iran are more than cordial and thus General Bajwa or for that matter Prime Minister Imran Khan may have to play time permitting a definite role in bringing in the Taliban splinter for peace talks.
The Iran factor is important here.
This is what the US peace negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad presumes and thus he may have suggested the Pak Army Chief to help in creating peaceful atmosphere to set in motion the stalled peace talks.
Antonio Giustozzi, a Taliban expert with the Royal United Services Institute in London, says while talking on this splinter Taliban group that it appears the new group is based in Iran, which shares a 900-kilometer border with Afghanistan and has a sizable Afghan population.
“It’s still ( the splinter) is in the early stages of forming,” said Giustozzi, adding that the military strength and the leadership of the faction is unknown, writes Frud Bezhan June 9/2020 for the RadiofreeEurope /Radio liberty.
“There are several Taliban leaders, fronts, and commanders who oppose peace and are linked to Iran,” says Giustozzi.
Afghan Taliban leaders have yet to convince U.
S. military officials they are ready to be “faithful partners” and help usher in a new era of peace for Afghanistan.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Kenneth McKenzie issued the latest caution Wednesday, adding that unless there are significant changes, U.S. forces are likely to remain in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, writes Jeff Seldin for the Voice of America dated June 10/2020.
So who’s going to fill that vacuum once the American forces quit the Afghani soil once and for all? Keep on guessing. However, it would surely be the country which enjoys trust and honor from the US Administration. That’s all.