N. P. Upadhyaya, Kathmandu: Political columnist Jaime Leon, in an article published May 19, 2021, believes that the US forces’ smooth pull out from Afghanistan is only possible when neighboring Pakistan (which was forced to house millions of Afghan refugees into its adjoining territory since the former Soviet Union, the USSR) cooperates with the US forces in all good faith and honesty.
The Pak factor:
Pakistan ought to be true and honest in settling the overly stretched Afghan war as any instability in Afghanistan will instantly have its negative impact in the next door neighbor Pakistan whose borders are contiguous.
Peace in Afghanistan is what Pakistan essentially needs.
It is this desire for peace in the neighborhood that prompted Pakistan to convince the Afghani-Talibans to attend to the Doha peace talks in early 2020.
At a news conference jointly addressed by Imran Khan and visiting Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon in Islamabad, June 2, 2021, PM Khan stressed the need for regional countries to jointly push the Afghan political reconciliation saying that “it would help boost much needed regional trade and economic links with the Central Asian Countries”.
This means peace in Afghanistan is key to expediting trade contacts with the Central Asian countries and vice versa.
Khan added that “It is very important for Afghanistan to have a political settlement and stability when the Americans leave and a government with consensus is established that could prevent the country from descending into anarchy”.
A consensus government comprising of Taliban and Ashraf Ghani is perhaps what had been signaled by Antony Blinken when he wrote a straight (blunt) letter to Ghani some two months back, in March this year.
Ghani rejected the US formula.
Tajikistan needs peace and stability in Afghanistan as much as Pakistan needs as this central Asian country borders Afghanistan.
A politically stable Afghanistan is in the larger interest of the entire Central Asian countries because the location of Afghanistan is just close to these countries.
Central Asian countries can benefit from Pakistan’s game changer Gwadar port only when Afghanistani soil remains politically stable and peace prevails in and around Afghanistan.
However, as per Jaime Leon, it is Pakistan which is almost an arbiter in determining Kabul’s fate after the forces withdrawal.
But only when Afghanistan leadership, more so the security apparatus, remains honest.
This conclusion of the political analysts comes close on the heels of Hamidullah Mohib’s immature comments on Pakistan.
(We will come to Mohib’s diplomatically-immature remarks later).
Because of the treacherous border with Afghanistan, Pakistan needs complete tranquility in the next door neighbor.
Because of the permeable border in between the two, any political variability, such as civil war, in Afghanistan will force the kinsmen living in the Afghani side to sneak inside Pakistan there by adding to the woes of the already refugee-troubled Pakistan.
Leon writes that “Pakistan is emerging as a possible arbiter of Kabul’s fate amid fragile peace talks, the specter of a civil war, and a looming uncertainty over Afghanistan’s future following the complete return of the foreign forces”.
However, the emergence of “spoilers” from within Afghanistan appears to have been creating problems for the US administration to remain true to its commitment that the US forces shall leave Afghanistan by approaching September.
September 11 is the fateful date when the US and the NATO forces are scheduled to leave Afghanistan.
The domestic spoilers such as Afghan National Security Advisor Hamidullah Mohib who in the recent days has made some highly “erratic”, undiplomatic and unwarranted comments on Pakistan as regards the Afghanistan peace process and its ties with the Talibans.
Mohib’s close to nonsense comments has already been taken notice by the concerned authorities in Islamabad.
Foreign Minister Qureshi has in the recent days publicly stated for the first time that his ministry had severed ties with Afghanistan’s national security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, over incendiary remarks about its southern neighbor that undermined regional peace efforts”.
NSA Mohib is supposedly close to President Ashraf Ghani and Middle East media sources claim that Mohib’s remarks may have come only after President Ghani encouraged him to make unhealthy remarks on Pakistan.
Ashraf Ghani, former President Hamid Karzai, NSA Mohib and Ajit Doval have a close friendship which undoubtedly explains as to why Mohib makes irresponsible comments demeaning neighboring country.
The regional spoilers in a group? This groups is clearly against the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s letter sent to President Ghani on “power sharing” formula.
Reacting to Mohib’s remarks, last month on May 17 in a statement Pakistan warned that the Afghan leadership’s accusations could “erode trust and vitiate the environment between the two brotherly countries and disregard the constructive role being played by Pakistan in facilitating the Afghan peace process.”
So not surprising if FM Qureshi takes NSA Mohib as Chief Spoiler that he is, of the Afghan peace process.
Said Qureshi “Mohib will be actually playing the role of a spoiler (for peace)”.
“Correct your behaviour and reflect on it. I say this to the international community that if this behaviour continues, then this person, who calls himself the national security adviser of Afghanistan, will actually be playing the role of a spoiler [for peace], so said Qureshi of Mohib.
Among the many spoilers in the South Asian region, NSA Mohib’s utterances appear more directed towards damaging the peace prospects in Afghanistan.
Mohib has joined the club of the spoilers in South Asia.
If it happens so then it is Afghanistan at the losing end for long time to come.
Mohib must understand that if Pakistan, out of anger, leaves the peace process then what will happen? How the US will take Mohib’s erratic noises?
Like it or not, the US needs Pakistan much to the smooth execution of its “announced” pull out from Afghanistan.
While Mohib’s remarks continue to irritate foreign office authorities in Islamabad, high officials from the US continue to visit Islamabad to seek the latter’s good offices in settling the Afghan war once and for all after the complete removal of the foreign forces from the Afghani soil slated for September 11.
A fresh report emanating from Washington says quoting Jake Sullivan-the US National Security adviser that the US held talks, June 9, with Pakistan to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a base for terrorist group(s) that could attack the US in future.
Sullivan, reports said, made the remarks at a press briefing in response to a question on US’s willingness to have a drone base in Pakistan.
Pakistan has time and again rejected the idea of allowing a “base” for the US to monitor Afghanistan upon its return from Kabul.
“We’ve had constructive discussions in military, intelligence, diplomatic channels with Pakistan about the future of America’s capabilities to ensure that Afghanistan never again becomes a base from which al-Qaeda, ISIS or any other terrorist group can attack the United States.
Sullivan added that “but in terms of the specifics, what that would look like will have to remain in those private channels as we work through them,” reports the Express Tribune.
Writes Mandira Nayar for the Week dated June 8, 2021 that “There has been a certain shift in the US towards Pakistan that will undoubtedly be watched closely by India.
By the way, India has ever been watching Pakistan.
Nayar goes on to say that the month of May was a hectic month for Pakistan-US ties.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Moeed Yusuf, National Security Adviser of Pakistan, in Geneva. Pakistan Foreign Minister S.M. Qureshi visited the US—he is tasked with formulating a plan to improve US-Pakistan ties that have been less than warm—and there was a phone call from US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Qamar Bajwa.
Then, there was also the unannounced visit by CIA chief William Burns to Islamabad, which remained a hush-hush affair”.
The CIA too is learnt to have been exploring on how to ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan upon its return as committed.
Yet another authentic news claims that the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III last month (May 24 to be precise) spoke over phone with the Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa.
During the call, claims Lan Jianxue who wrote in the Global Times dated June 3, 2021, that Austin reiterated his appreciation for Pakistan’s support for Afghanistan peace negotiations and expressed his desire to continue to build on the US-Pakistan bilateral relationship.
This means that Lloyd Austin talked ahead of Jake Sullivan with the Islamabad military and the political establishment.
This does tell that the US appears to have an attitude to improve its somewhat “distanced” relations ties with its former Cold War time ally.
What must be recalled here is that US kept a distance with its Cold war ally because of the fact that India changed its camp and sided like a chameleon with a considerable strong world power-the US rejecting or say “ignoring” its former supporter the USSR now the Russian Federation.
Considering India’s heightened hobnob with the US, the Russian Ambassador in Delhi Nikolai Kudashev, 2020, bluntly told India (by being right in Delhi’s diplomatic enclave) that “Russia’s growing bilateral relationship with China and Pakistan are “independent” of its ties with India”.
The Russian envoy, to recall, had ventilated his country’s serious concerns over the Indo-Pacific initiative as well as the Quad Security Dialogue (Quad).
Nikolay Kudashev bluntly had said that Moscow is “friend” to both New Delhi and Beijing.
Russia straight from Delhi had signaled that it is trying to be “comfortable” with Islamabad.
Many observers took Moscow’s changed stance towards Islamabad that the former preferred to see Islamabad as a “regional” power at par with the regional hooligan-India.
Having said all these, the China factor (the CPEC to be more precise) clearly is what makes the US to remain wary in advancing its ties with the former ally Pakistan which supported the US in its thick and thin period.
(The China-Pakistan economic corridor has come into operation, say media sources).
The fact is also that Pakistan too can’t afford to lose its friendship with the US.
So it can’t ignore ties with China given the dimension of its ties with Beijing.
All that Pakistan’s senior diplomats should do is to strike a “reasonable balance” in its ties both with the US and China, Russia in addition.
Clearly the US shall be watching Pakistan’s tilt towards China, and Russia and vice versa.
In such a situation, PM Khan will have a tight rope walk.
Undoubtedly once again, it will not that be an easy task to balance the US and China for Pakistan.
Skintight walk awaits Islamabad sooner than later.
The US has to watch the new undeclared coalition of China, Pakistan and Russia that has developed in the recent months.
Add to this, the increasing Pakistan’s proximity with the Russian Federation could also be a point of serious concern for the US.
This “foreign policy” enigma becomes all the more interesting in the face of the chances of Sergei Lavrov offering of a blank cheque to Islamabad in his fresh visit and the talks that Russian President Vladimir Putin is all set to make a short but very important trip to India’s rival-Pakistan this year end.
President Biden and President Putin are meeting in a day or two.
Clearly, the Russians wish to see Pakistan emerging as a “Regional Power” and hence the present political overtures.
This the Russians are doing to take “revenge” from India which has summarily abandoned its Cold war ally-the Russia federation-the de facto heir apparent of the former USSR.
Notably, talking to the NBC Television, June 12, Vladimir Putin has said point blank that Russian ties with the US were at “historic low” but yet is meeting Joe Biden soon.
This too has to be taken into account if Pakistan desires to establish itself as a “regional player”-a fitting match to India.
But Pakistan has no options left other than to manage the ties with both the world powers.
With the fresh revelations made by Jake Sullivan, Mandira too reiterates the same feelings as mentioned in the above paragraphs.
Mandira says that “there is no doubt that the US will be keen to use Pakistan to keep an eye on Afghanistan going back to an arrangement that existed till 2011. But it will be difficult for Imran Khan to be able to dilute this stand easily.
Nor will it be easy for him to shake off Chinese discomfort if Pakistan chooses to embrace America too closely.
Let’s presume that Mandira Nayar is speaking the New Delhi’s voice and the concerns associated with it.
But yet, Pakistan’s diplomatic smartness must go through this tough test.
The test also coincides with Pakistan’s crusade against some domestic “tainted and painted” media men who under the instigation of some “known alien” forces have vowed to tarnish the image of their own nation.
The trial comes close on the heels of the strong rumors that India of late has initiated talks with Afghan-Talibans.
All said and done, now if peace in Afghanistan is to be institutionalized, the variety of stakeholders must be serious.
But one thing remains certain. And that being after the US Pull out, the countries who will immensely benefit are the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, and later Pakistanis obviously.
So will the US allow its declared competitors and immediate rivals to benefit from its pull out from Afghanistan?
More so as against the backdrop of the G7 Cornwall meet which has exploded against China may encourage the latter to penetrate in Afghanistan after US pull out.
Writes Willis Sparks for the Gzero media dated February 25 2021, in his article entitled ‘China’s plans for Afghanistan’ that (since) Afghanistan shares a short border with China’s mainly Muslim Xinjiang region, and Beijing has long feared that instability in Afghanistan, heightened as the US and NATO prepare to withdraw troops, might allow Uighur separatists to use Afghan territory as a base for military operations.
Sparks further says that “China also sees Afghanistan as an arena in which to promote stronger commercial and security ties with its Pakistani ally and gain advantage on its Indian rival”.
Sparks’ remarks comes close on the heels of Indian Chief of Defense Staff Bipin Rawat that China is a great threat to India.
Rawat talking to WION media admitted this threat.
Is India losing from the US exit?
The US’s embrace of India is being disliked by China and Russia.
The fact is that in such a milieu, the US and the NATO forces pull out is taking place.
For the US, both China and the Russians pose a formidable threat which thus then demands a bit softer approach towards them to keep the US supremacy going.
This thus again compels the US to embrace Pakistan for multiple geo-political compulsions.
Pakistan can be for the US as a soft mediator in its ties with Beijing and Moscow should any frictions crop up.
Needless to say, the US pull out will certainly create many a security challenges for Mr. Ghani’s rule. Let’s wait what happens next. And how India’ Doval and Shankar takes the US exit?
That’s all.