N. P. Upadhyaya

The much publicized and long awaited Troika Plus meet in Doha, Qatar August 11. 2021, has called for an “accelerated peace process for Afghanistan” as a, what it calls, “matter of great urgency” and for an immediate halt to attacks on provincial capitals and cities in Afghanistan, reports Reuters from Dubai.

A statement issued following talks in Qatar, where envoys met with Afghan government negotiators and Taliban representatives, also reaffirmed that foreign capitals would not recognize any government in Afghanistan “imposed through the use of military force“, adds the Reuters reporting.

The Doha meet was held aiming at breaking a deadlock in peace talks, and the talks came as the Taliban fighters pressed offensives across Afghanistan that have overrun at least ten provincial capitals and as U.S. intelligence said the insurgents could take the capital Kabul within 90 days, if the Talibani insurgents advances the manner they are at the moment.

The US forces have less than twenty days to summarily quit from Afghanistan ending the almost stay of two decades.

However, it should not mean that Taliban as of now have achieved absolute dominance domestically, Qian Feng , the director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times, writes Liu Xin and Wang Wenwen for the Global Times August 11, 2021. Afghan updates as of August 11, 2021.

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Below the article in details:
Kathmandu: The US top diplomat Antony Blinken made a call to President Ashraf Ghani, August 3, and “underscored” the US commitment to Afghanistan, duly confirmed Ned Price-the official US spokesman.

Both Blinken and Ghani talked to “accelerate the peace negotiations” to achieve an “inclusive” political settlement which paves the way for the Afghan people to have a say in choosing their leaders.

However, both Ghani and Blinken stated that care must be taken that the “leaders thus chosen refrain from doing any harm to the US and its allies and partners.
The US bottom-line perhaps. The US means it.

Notably, Ghani considers Indian regime its “fast” friend and has “imported” arms and ammunitions to attack the insurgent Talibs who are upbeat with their speedy advancement towards Kabul and with the meet with the high profile Chinese officials in Tianjin.

Talibs anger towards India and Ghani is obvious.

President Ghani and Blinken have talked with each other close on the heels of the much awaited talks of the Troika plus that is going to be held in Doha, Qatar August 11, 2021, this week that has excluded India with calculated finesse.

(By time this paper gets published, the Doha meet will be in progress-Upadhyaya).

President Ghani is taken as a political man very close to the US and India as stated, however, accuses the US and says “US’s sudden withdrawal from the region is the reason for the worsening security situation in the country.

Fresh reports say that President Ghani is feeling isolated” with the advancing Talibs and also with the nearing “exit” of the US forces.

Ghani may have added fear in that the Talibs in an implied manner have got recognized by three “great powers” and one super regional power which are Russia, China, the US and Pakistan respectively.

Ghani feels isolated which is real.

Fresh reports have it that the Talibs are just 20 miles away of Kabul.

(As of Monday evening). Will Kabul fall?

Shifting the blame onto the heads of the US.

(PM Imran Khan too had written an article in Washington Post last year wherein he too had stated that “hasty withdrawal must be avoided”).

Ghani said so apparently keeping the “speedy advance” of the Taliban(s) towards Kabul-the seat of Afghan government.

While writing this story, the United States has sent B-52 bombers and Spectre gunships to Afghanistan in a bid to stop Taliban insurgents who are marching towards Kabul with several places under Talibs control.

The B-52s are flying into Afghanistan from an airbase in Qatar, say media sources.

Notably, Qatar is hosting the Troika Plus meet August 11.

Ghani’s fear is real in that Kabul’s fall is almost imminent, international media opine.

But with the arrival of the US bombers in the scene, the Talibs may have now problems to advance.

And it is this speedy advancement of the Talibani forces that has caused annoyance in various world capitals fearing as to what would happen if and when the Taliban capture the seat of power in Kabul?

While this fear lingers, the extended Troika plus (China, Russia, US and Pakistan) are all set to meet in Doha Qatar August 11.

The Doha meet will be less than three weeks (20 days) of the US and the NATO forces departure from Afghanistan after two decades.

Representing the extended Troika plus are Zamir Kabulov from Russian Federation, Zalmay Khalilzad from the US, Yue Xiaoyong from China and Mohammad Sadiq Khan ( has stayed in Afghanistan as Pakistan’s Ambassador ).

International relations veteran Zamir Kabulov is a high ranking Russian diplomat born in Soviet-Uzbekistan in 1954.

He has served his country in Afghanistan as well.

Needless to say, all these four diplomatic experts are foreign policy authorities in their respective countries.

Notorious regional bully India wanted to be included in the Troika plus, however, Russia appears to have ignored India because at the moment Russia and India have sharp differences on world political issues more so the Quad.

Russian envoy in Delhi Nikolai Kudashev in an implied manner said last year that India’s inclusion in the Quad had made Russia scratchy.

Russia has felt cheated by India for a variety of political reasons linked with the Cold War period.

India was USSR tail in the Cold war era.

In addition, Zamir Kabulov, the special Russian Presidential envoy for Afghanistan point blank told recently that “Since India has less or no influence on Taliban thus India’s role at the moment is not necessary”.

In the words of Kabulov, (sic) “India can’t participate in the format of the expanded group of three because it did not have any influence on the Taliban”, reported, Tass July 20.

The much publicized Troika plus firmly believes that “no military solution in Afghanistan and a negotiated political settlement through an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process is the only way forward for lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan”.

According to Zamir Kabulov, the primary goals of the Afghan settlement at the moment are to achieve a cease-fire, resume the stalled inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue, and form an interim coalition government with tasks to carry out constitutional reform.

And this is the standard policy of Pakistan on Afghanistan though President Asharaf Ghani cries foul against the neighbor as he had bad mouth for Pakistan in Tashkent, Uzbekistan in mid-July last month.

And it is this Russian deliberate ignoring of India encouraged the latter to land in Iran which too has been not included in the high level meet of the envoys from Russia, China, the US and Pakistan.

However, the Indians believe that it was China that under the recommendation of Pakistan scuttled the Indian inclusion in the Troika Plus.

But it is not true. What is true instead is that Russia these days prefers to keep a distance with India on the counts of Quad of which India is one of the key strategic partner.

Clearly Russia is now closer to China.

As of Iran, the country too wished to get included in the Troika plus but Russia apparently avoided the US and Iran from embarrassment if and when the two would have sit in the negotiating table in Doha.

Clarifying the reason behind Iranian non-inclusion in the Troika Plus, Zamir Kabulov said while talking at a meeting at the Moscow-based think tank Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund that, “Iran was suggested to be the fifth participant of the Troika Plus, but because of the differences between Washington and Tehran, the latter refused to take part in work of any format with the participation of the US”.

This means Iran willingly rejected its inclusion in the Russian peace format for Afghanistan.

Iran is still under US sanctions so the Russians may have avoided Iran.

Now that Iran and India are out from the Troika Plus meet to be held in Doha, the pained Indian Foreign Minister S. Shankar must have rushed to Iran to “reset” its ties with Iran simply because India being excessively closer with the US in the recent years must have annoyed Iran.

S. Shankar is the recognized South Asian gangster who unfortunately is a Minister in India and is the one who destabilized Nepal by encouraging “some” in Nepal’s Terai/Madhesh to create unrest. And he did. He is taken in Nepal as a “split personality”.

Iranian displeasure with India could be also due to the fact that fearing the US wrath, India boycotted the import of the Iranian oil which in turn encouraged Iran to ink a 400$ billion deal with China wherein China agreed to help support China with its energy needs for almost two decades plus.

This China-Iran deal created almost an uproar in inferiority complex ridden Modi controlled Godi media.

The chameleon Godi media these days are all praise for Iran.

If, let’s presume for a moment, India and Iran are coming closer then how Iran-the number one enemy of Israel will behave with India which is the biggest friend in the world after the US?

India’s closer ties with the Arab countries should perhaps also annoy Iran for it has not that much good ties with the countries in the Gulf more so with Saudi Arabia which of late has some visible preferences for Israel.

If and when Iran and India come close, India will undoubtedly “spoil” the Afghan peace process championed by the Troika plus that is China, Russia, the US and Pakistan who are all set to meet in Doha August 11.

India, Iran and Afghanistan may form a separate front for peace in Afghanistan.

The last meet of this Troika format was held on April 30 in Doha.

The fun is that while writing this story, President Ghani also landed in Tehran to seek Indian blessings and to thank Shankar for the arms that India sent to “annihilate” the Talibs.

What says Pakistan-the emerging regional power: The upcoming meeting of the Troika Plus is taking place close on the heels of the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan and by this time which is nearing completion as promised by President Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, the foreign Office spokesman of Pakistan Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri, in a statement issued at the end of July last month in Islamabad, underscored the importance Pakistan attached to ‘Troika Plus’ and takes it as an important forum for facilitating the Afghan peace process.

Pakistan had been participating in the format regularly, he said, adding that Pakistan looked forward to the Troika-Plus meeting in Doha which has begun by now.
“Pakistan will continue to support efforts to achieve a peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan,” he reiterated.

Pakistan has no other options left other than to desire for peace in Afghanistan being next door neighbor.

It is in this background that the Pak Army Chief Qamar Bajwa has told in the recent weeks the Afghani media men that “Stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan is inter-linked”.

Gen Bajwa pointedly told the media men that “no sabotage from external forces shall be tolerated as the Pak-Afghan border security is meaningful”.
(Fearing infiltration, Pak-Afghan border has been tentatively sealed).

He perhaps was referring to the regional spoiler-declared enemy India.

To recall, Pakistan is on record to have signed a statement saying a Talibani Emirate would also be unacceptable to the country.

The unannounced visit of the Taliban delegation to China and their meeting with Chinese foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin, July 28 last month speaks so many things unspoken.

While Afghanistan is a member of the SAARC regional body then China has an “Observer” status in the same body.

This must have some meaning underneath.

Clearly, China wants the upcoming set-up in Afghanistan a China friendly as is Pakistan, Sri Lanka and to some extent Bangladesh and India controlled Nepal and the Maldives.

Recently, “Go back India” slogan was heard in the Rawfied tiny island nation.

Thus the Talibs meet in Tianjin too assumes significance given the scheduled Troika Plus meet in Doha which hopefully will chart the fate of the Afghans.

China told a visiting Taliban delegation that Beijing expected the insurgent group (Taliban) to play an important role in ending Afghanistan’s war and rebuilding the country, reports the Reuters.

Notably, nine Taliban representatives had met Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin who were on a two-day visit during which the peace process and security issues were discussed, a Taliban spokesperson said, reports Reuters.

China hoped the Taliban “play an important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan”, media sources claim.

China’s fresh “understanding” with the Taliban forces must have annoyed the US and India but yet the former has agreed to work with China for the peace prevail in Afghanistan.

India is the loser provided the Afghani warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum comes to the rescue.

Dostum is talked to be a close friend of Ashraf Ghani and concurrently an enemy of Pakistan claim media sources.

(Dostum was receiving treatment in Turkey who is back in Kabul. Is Turkey playing double with Pakistan?

With the arrival of warlord Abdul Dostum, India has now one more “card” against Pakistan awaiting use and overuse.

Is Erdogan a real friend of Pakistan? Is he playing hide and seek? The question is real.

To recall, Turkey is in NATO and wants to keep its army for the security of the Kabul airport.

Some say that after the US exit, China will enter Afghanistan as a small strip of land separates China with Afghanistan.

Russia too would wish to enter Kabul through Central Asian states.

China fears that the Taliban may come close with the Uighur Muslims and create added problems for Beijing.

Analyst Phelim Kine for the ‘Politico China Watcher’ opines that China’s nightmare is that a Taliban victory might embolden the Uyghur armed insurgency group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, to launch attacks in China.

China’s receiving the Taliban forces in Tianjin must have raised the Blood pressure of the regional hooligan which is likely to devise structures to foil the Afghan peace process together with those forces who do not wish peace in Afghanistan.

Doval and Shankar will have a new job-the disturbing regional stability.

What US expects from Pakistan:

The US wants Pakistan to “do more” and expects Pakistan to push the Talibs to a peace agreement with the establishment.

Pakistan responds that it has “exhausted” its leverage over the Taalibs because of the US announcement of the exit.

The Talibs felt that they have won the game with the exit date set by President Biden.

What Pakistan wants from US?

Islamabad now wants the ties with the US not limited with the Afghan peace but expects the ties to be based on “geo-economics” that takes care of trade, investment and connectivity.

Very freshly Pakistan Prime Minister says that the US just wants to use the country to clear the mess in Afghanistan.

Khan says the US prefers India over Pakistan. 

Having said all these, the US largesse will approach Islamabad if and when peace is restored Afghanistan with the “do more” from Pakistan.

Despite the Taliban advance, the U.S. government hopes the survival of Ghani’s government and a peaceful end to the conflict.

In a discussion held on August 3, 2021, at the Aspen Security Forum, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad noted the “emboldened” Taliban was “in a maximalist frame of mind, “but insisted that a “political settlement and agreement” is possible.

The Troika Plus in Doha will do the needful, let’s hope.

All in all, Observers in Nepal believe that the extended Troika plus will do all it can for the prevalence of peace in Afghanistan.

South Asia needs peace and tranquility. Indian occupied Kashmir is already a flash point. Let Kabul be free from Indian mis-adventure.

And Kathmandu is also on the way to become a hotspot.

How the Troika plus amicably resolves the ongoing fight in between President Ghani and the Talibs for having “Lion’s Share” after peace is restored in Afghanistan will have to be watched?

Also to be watched will be how India reacts to the peace in Afghanistan as will be envisioned by the Troika Plus (?) prevailing without its participation? Equally important to see will be how the US-Pak ties remains.

Oh! The regional Rasputin that has terrified the entire smaller South Asian countries since the day it was born in 1947 after gaining independence from the Mughal and the British slavery.

The regional Rasputin is in Kabul. That’s all.