N. P. Upadhyaya

Kathmandu: Predictably, India must have been in a state of high depression.

Reasons are in abundance.

Two high magnitude quake on the Richter scale supposedly must have rocked the former seat of the Mughals and then the British India Company.

The first one, for sure, must have been the news that PM Khan has been invited by the mighty Russian federation’ President V. Putin.

Indian mindset had been that Russia takes India only as its friend in the entire South Asian region.

India even at times of the Ukrainian crisis playing double with the Russians and the Americans.

It is the double play of India that the Indian students studying in Ukraine are facing the worst.

The Ukrainian police men reportedly have misbehaved with the students from India.

The “calculation” thus has proved wrong as in international relations, friends and enemies both keep on changing.
What doesn’t change is country’s prime interests.

PM Khan thus visited Moscow to the utter dismay of the regional bully-India.

And the second equally powerful political jolt was that Pakistan’s Prime Minister in an abrupt fashion invited Prime Minister Modi to face a live TV debate with him in order to sort out the overly stretched India-Pakistan animosity.

The offer must have come as a troubling surprise to entire Indian establishment.

But the offer made for peace talks is there for all to see.

We will discuss all these points later:

The ground reality is that India and Pakistan are bad neighbors since the second day itself of the grand Partition of the two nations which was created on the concept of two nation theory: one is Hindu majority and the other has Muslim in majority.

The two are needless to say, nuclear-powered rivals sharing antagonistic relations since partition days.

The possession of nuclear weapons has acted as a politico-nuclear deterrent for Pakistan.

India will have to think twice prior to pressing the nuclear button if and when the situation so arises.

Frankly speaking, both India and Pakistan have fought several wars since the partition but that has not yet dissuaded the two rival nations from trading flimsy charges on each other which at times brings the two face to face at the borders.

Thus the animosity lingers since seven decades plus as stated earlier.

To the best of the knowledge of the nonpartisan South Asian political observers, Pakistan has one-point agenda which is, as is being disseminated by the Pakistani side, that “if and when the issue of the India occupied Jammu and Kashmir” gets sorted out to the satisfaction first of the agitating Kashmiris then the India-Pakistani overly stretched rivalry shall come to an end.

Kashmir issue is what annoys Pakistan and the annoyance continues even after seven decades plus of their living separately as two different nations.

The disputed territories of Kashmir, both countries claim in full.

To the best of our knowledge, India’s declared rival Pakistan has been just reminding the regional ruffian, India for sure, to honor and bring into its verbatim implementation of those United Nations Security Council resolutions that had been officially made as regards the “disputed ” landmass of the now India Occupied territories in Kashmir.

One of the most important Security Council’s resolutions on Kashmir was then made which had guaranteed of an all satisfying plebiscite (referendum) for the Kashmiri population which would have allowed, had the plebiscite taken place, the oppressed people of Kashmir to decide their fate themselves.

The then Indian Prime Minister Nehru have had given a positive nod to the UN led plebiscite on Kashmir.

Later he retreated to the utter dismay of the world leaders.

The non-implementation of the UNSC resolutions on Kashmir could be due to the international body’s “preferred tilt” towards India, so claim non-partisan observers looking at the manner the UN body has close its “eyes” on the vexing issue which is what gives an impression that the UN Body is siding with the Indian regime.

The tilt of the UNSC and also of the developed West clearly side with India which has doubled simply because India is a strong partner in the US led security dialogue-the QUAD which has Australia, Japan, the US and India.

In the meantime, the QUAD has sent strong warning to the Russian President that the US and its NATO plus the QUAD partners are against the Russian “invasion” of the Ukraine.

India being in the QUAD has felt awkward when the US threatened the Russian federation.

The Indian mindset is to send “signals” to the Russians that India very much is in favor of Russia.

And a similar message India has been sending to Ukraine that its “moral” support is with the country that has been victimized.

It is this double play of India that the Ukrainians and the Russian have understood better in these eight days of the attack on Ukraine.

India is riding two boats at a time.

Back to the point:

The non-implementation of the assured plebiscite or say the referendum in Kashmir still stands in limbo, as stated earlier, much to the dismay and anger of the population living in Kashmir and the peace loving people at large across the globe.

Nepal as a prominent country of the South Asian landmass, wishes the survey to be held under the UN aegis as early as possible simply because it is the untold and beyond imagination suffering that the Kashmiris have been enduring since seven decades or so at the hands of the “occupying” Indian regime that has needless to say made South Asian region as a flash point.

It is this “flash point” located in and around occupied Kashmir that has brought the two declared rivals, India and Pakistan, face to face several times in the past with the potential of several other lethal encounters in between the two almost “enemies” should the situation so demand.

Nepal’s concerns as regards the plight of the Kashmiris is genuine in that the non-ending conflict in between Pakistan and Indian, both Nepal’s South Asian neighbors, have not only threatened peace and stability in this part of the world but also has the latent potential to invite the world Super powers to this region to settle the Kashmiri issue for all time to come through a large scale war.

In case the Moscow-Beijing-Islamabad axis which has just taken a “silent” shape, comes into full action then what will happen to India?

However, China is, as is rumored, acting like a mediator in between the US and Russia.

If Chinese mediation works, then India will be cornered both by the US and China.

Yet the Ukrainian President Zelensky has reportedly urged the European Union to grant it the NATO membership.

This may aggravate the situation, observers in Nepal conclude.

Russia will definitely feel somewhat uneasy if and when Ukraine enters the NATO club.

International relations experts rightly take the “region of Kashmir” as one of the most volatile areas in the entire globe.

Any turmoil in Kashmir is sure to destabilize the entire South Asian landmass which is already feeling threatened to its existence by the regional bully along with the known expansionist that India is.

Instead of taming India, the US has made it a partner in the Quad security dialogue which in itself an unfortunate going of the US.

What scares the smaller South Asian countries like Nepal that “as and when Super Power enter” South Asia under any pretext of their choice, it will certainly be the South Asian population to suffer much.

Kashmir is a permanent problem for both India and Pakistan and as long as Kashmir issue is not resolved, the two countries shall ever remain on the verge of war.

Sardar Massod Khan, the Pak permanent representative in the UN writes in and Global Village article that ” the currency of hatred will sear both India and Pakistan.

By geography, the two nations are destined to co-exist for centuries.

Kashmir is what divides them, among others: it can also unite them if India for once agrees that this is a problem that needs to be resolved justly”.

The February 22, 2022, Imran Khan’s interview with the Russian Television brilliantly conducted by  BOYKO OKSANA does talk on the burning issue of Kashmir wherein the Pakistani Premier Imran Khan offers a live TV debate with his Indian counterpart PM Modi and tentatively suggests his rival side that “it is the Kashmir issue” that needs to be sorted out.

If done so, adds PM Khan, there are valid reasons to hope and believe that both the rival nations can live in peace for all time to come.

PM Khan by offering India his fresh “peace proposal” on the eve of his departure to Russian Federation sent abundant signals to the world leaders that his country, Pakistan, desires peace with its immediate enemy neighbor but for that the lingering issue of Kashmir must be first resolved that satisfies all the stakeholders that is India,

Pakistan and the people of Kashmir who are living in the world’s largest open air prison since decades and decades.
By offering a live discussion with PM Modi, Imran Khan has in more ways than one “unnerved” Indian establishment and its uneducated Prime Minister Modi.

The joke of the year 2022 is that the Indian Prime Minister Modi (not even a school dropout) is not known to have engaged in TV debates and so far hasn’t held even a “press conference” of sorts since coming to power in India in 2014.

Though Khan knows that India will reject his “TV debate offer” but yet his intention is to send signals to the world body and world leaders that Pakistan is open for peace should India so desire.

Needless to say, Khan’s TV dialog offer must have “touched” the Russian high level authorities which may have forced them to look Pakistan in a different way.

Khan thus killed two birds with a single stone.

In fact, with the new alignments and realignments taking a new course in the world politics, Russian President’s preferred choice in South Asia now is Imran Khan who has replaced Indian Prime Minister Modi in a smooth manner.

Russia has felt ditched by the India’s chameleon regime and PM Khan too has concluded internally that his country too has been mercilessly sidelined by the former Cold war ally-the US and hence Khan’s slight “inclination towards Russia” had become a must.

However, PM Khan must not commit a political blunder in completely abandoning the US for understandable reasons as international alignments keep on changing as and when situation so demands.

And needless to say, according to Sir Winston Churchill, Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”.
Friendship with all should be the main principle.

And that Russia is not only an enigma but yet remains a mighty Super Power was observed when tiny Ukraine tasted the might of the Russian federation.

In fact, Ukraine was ballooned by the countries of the developed West which challenged the mighty Russia.

For serving its prime interests, country’s judge as to where to align to benefit politically and strategically.

Ukraine failed miserably in estimating the Russian heavyweight but yet Russian attack on Ukraine can’t be supported.

Pakistan’s current hobnob with Russia has been necessitated by an inspirational desire to maintain a power balance in South Asia which was visibly in favor of India with the latter’s close proximity with the US that has included India as a strong partner in the Security Dialogue-the QUAD.

If Pakistan needs Russia, then the reverse is also true for emerging geo-political compulsions.

Both Russia and Pakistan have their needs to get served.

Pakistan needs Russia for its “development” then Russia needs Pakistan to show India that “we have found an ally” in South Asia.

The ace cricketer turned politician, Prime Minister Imran Khan while meeting the Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin did not miss to air his genuine concerns on the plight of the Kashmiri population who have been living under the continued oppression of the Indian regime.

The News18 new portal dated February 25 reports that while PM Khan was ventilating his serious concerns over India Occupied Kashmir, mighty Russia was almost pouncing upon the US and NATO lured Ukraine that almost crippled the lives of the innocent Ukrainians.

By time this story is being penned, the small country Ukraine has become the victim of “big power” and sending diplomatic notes to Russia for meaningful talks to end the conflict.
As of this posting, two session of talks have already been held in Belarus to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Interesting to note is the fact that Khan’s raising of the issue of Kashmir issue came close on the heels of the Russian diplomatic mission in Delhi which disseminated that Russia “would not interfere in bilateral issues of India and Pakistan, adding that the countries’ issues should be solved only via the Shimla Agreement and Lahore Declaration.

Arrogant India doesn’t care either Shimla agreement or the Lahore declaration.

As far as could be drawn from Khan’s visit to Moscow, Khan’s primary aim appeared to focus on bringing the Russian sympathy for the Kashmir’s oppressed citizens and also to keep South Asia free from the hegemony of the noted regional Bully-India.

Thus the NEWS18 claims that the Pakistan Prime Minister talked on the situation in South Asia and expressed serious concerns over the pathetic human rights situation in IIOJK and demanded the peaceful resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute with the implementation of the United Nations Security Council’s resolutions made in the past but yet remains to be implemented.

PM Khan also highlighted, as the available media reports suggest, the developments detrimental to regional peace and stability and also stressed the need for devising schemes that would help keep the regional balance.

In fact, Pakistan needs Russia to cope with the Indian menace and to keep South Asia stable and peaceful which coincides with the “inner desires” of the mute South Asian’s smaller countries.

Khan in a way has put forth the wishes of the smaller SA states.

Pakistan in effect prefers to power tilt that is currently in India’s favor to get balanced with its proximity with the Russian Federation.

What Vladimir Putin assured PM Khan can’t be predicted at this “turbulent” time, but yet what could be stated easily that Pakistan shall face rival India with an energized strength after visiting Moscow and having an “exclusive” meeting with the macho man Vladimir Putin.

Whatever may have happened in Moscow, PM Khan’s visit there was an “ill timed” one.

Thanks that the Pakistani delegation to Moscow did not take side in Ukrainian conflict.

Khan simply said he didn’t believe there was a military solution to any dispute.

A Russian Presidency statement claims that the “two leaders discussed the main aspects of bilateral cooperation and exchanged views on current regional topics, including developments in South Asia”, reports Aljazeera dated 25 February, 2022.

And we presume, this is what PM Khan wanted to be discussed with Putin.

The PM Khan’s “working visit” visit to Moscow could be taken in a way as to have been ill timed for multiple reasons. However, what is also true is that the visit has had been planned in advance but suddenly the Ukrainian crisis crept in and diverted the attention of the world from the increasing proximity of Islamabad with Moscow and vice versa.

But yet the ties must have attained a new height.

Yet another height the ties awaits when Vladimir Putin lands in Islamabad which is sure to boggle the minds of the regional hegemon. That’s all.