Retired Brigadier Ranadhoj Limbu, Nepal Army

Put simply, security is a physical, mental, and psychological feelings, relative to time, space, environment, and consciousness levels of the people concerned. As, nothing in life, especially at the micro level, is more or less unrelated to security, misunderstanding arises regarding the meaning of security, at times. When talking about security, therefore, answers to three basic questions/ variables – security for/ of what (e.g. human right? religious minority? marginalized groups?), security from what (challenges/ threats such as violence? poverty? drug-trafficking? human right abuse?), and security with what (means and instruments) need to be made clear.

National Security and National Security Strategy:

In layman’s terms, National security implies security and protection of national interests from the internal and external threats/ challenges. And how a nation-state secures, maintains, and promotes its national interests in the context of existing threats and challenges is what is termed as National Security Strategy (NSS).

NSS is also defined as the art and science of developing and using the instruments of national power in peace or war to secure national objectives capitalizing on the nation’s sources of power.

To formulate a sound NSS, a nation needs to invariably identify certain constants/ variables which include:

• National vital interests/ objectives,
• Threats/ challenges to these national interests,
• Available sources and instruments of national power, and
• Ways to effectively employ the instruments of national power to secure national interests.

NSS is the foundation stone for all other national strategies including economic, social, and political. NSS needs to be regularly updated for timely course correction as required by new technology and changes in national and international security environments.

Over the past two centuries, Nepal could not have a balanced security strategy/ policy mainly because the Nepalese rulers equated and maintained their family, clan, and regime interests as national interests. It was because of such self-serving security thinking that Nepal suffered a strategic defeat in Nepal-East India Company war (1814-1816 A. D.), and was condemned to survive as a semi-colonial nation-state throughout the Rana regime. Even after the Rana regime, Nepal’s territorial integrity and sovereignty repeatedly suffered owing to wrong definition of national interests.

Nepal’s growth as a free, independent, and a sovereign nation-state in future is, therefore, contingent on its capability to establish and pursue a practical and balanced security strategy/ policy that realistically takes into account Nepal’s true national interests and unique geo-political location. For this, first and foremost, Nepal needs to correctly identify its national purpose and vital interests.

Background: In South Asia, some of the latest examples of major external threats to national interests that the small nations experienced are: Indo-Pakistan war (1972 A. D.) resulting in the birth of Bangladesh; merger in 1975 A. D. of Sikkim into India; and deployment of Indian troops to Sri Lanka in 1987 A. D. and to Maldives in 1988 A. D. The latest major natural disaster which some of the South Asian states (India, Sri Lanka) also faced was the devastating Tsunami of 2003 A.

D.

The major external challenges to national interests modern Nepal confronted in the past include:

The Chinese invasion (1792 A. D.), in which the Chinese troops marched right up to Betrawati river and threatened Kathmandu itself; the war of 1814-1816 A. D., in which Nepal lost major portion of its territory; and the Indian ‘blockade’ (?

) in 1989-1990 A. D. Moreover, Nepal faced a decade long Maoist insurgency as a major threats, inviting political instability and foreign power interferences. Besides, Nepal suffered number of major natural and manmade disasters, the most devastating of which were the earthquake of 1934 A. D., and Koshi river dam outburst (2008 A. D).

Sources of threats to national interests, thus, could be Natural (ecological) and manmade, external (state and non-state actors / powers), or internal agencies. However, to-date several other challenges also pose grave threats to national interests. For Nepal, those challenges could be natural/ manmade, military, psychological, political, economic, social, demographic, cultural, religious, subversion, infiltration, and espionage.

Nepal’s Crucial Strategic Vulnerabilities:

Nepal is sandwiched between India and China, which are respectively 22 and 75 times bigger in size than Nepal. While Nepal’s population is approximately 27 million, each of its neighbors, has well over one billion mark. The nearest access to the sea is the Bay of Bengal, which is 1127 km spanning the territory of India. Nepal maintains negligent direct land routes to countries other than India. Nepal remains not only land-locked, but also practically ‘India-locked’.

The supply routes for Nepal’s survival are, thus, insecure, and its economy remains most vulnerable. Moreover, one school of thought maintains the possibility of grand strategic bargaining involving the disputed territories (Aksai Chin and Arunanchal Pradesh), Tibet, and the existence of Nepal as a sovereign nation.

India is Nepal’s sole external market for hydropower and water export, implying that Nepal cannot enjoy much leeway in developing its water resources.

Moreover, Nepal is bound by the unfavorable strategic treaties including:

• Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 and
• Major river treaties including
  • Koshi- 1954,
  • Gandak- 1959, and
  • Mahakali-1996

The Indo-Nepal international border is open (devoid of natural barriers) and unsecured, rendering the Terai belt (Nepal’s economic and political core area without any natural defense) vulnerable to several types of threats military, economic, demographic, political, psychological, smuggling, and humans and drugs trafficking.

Nepal lacks strategic depth. Its economy is very weak and primitive agriculture-based. And the impact of global warming on Himalayas, which are subject to avalanches and glacial lake outbursts because of global warming, could be catastrophic for Nepal (and South Asia and world).

Nepal, at the moment, lacks centripetal force to strongly hold the nation-state together. National unity is deteriorating. Nepal’s large numbers of political parties are vulnerable to manipulation of internal and external forces. Nepal suffers identity crisis and continuous cultural invasion. While Nepal suffers from the crisis of national leaderships and lack of national consensus on vital national issues, various ethnic and regional groups are demanding for separate states.

Threats to Nepal’s Vital Interests-External:

For Nepal, the most obvious external threats as well as opportunities could be its immediate neighbors India or China, either of which is very much capable of militarily invading and occupying Nepal within a short span of time. However, Nepal is most unlikely to face such a direct foreign military invasion because of its geopolitical location, the short-term and long-term implications of such invasion, and the elements of uncertainties involved in such an adventure. Moreover, if the foreign powers, especially Nepal’s immediate neighbors, seriously want, they may achieve their ends more easily and economically by means and ways other than direct military intervention.

India and China already are water stressed economies. Water is becoming a key security issue in Sino-Indian relations and a potential source of enduring discord, which will not spare Nepal. Other external threats could include: economic blockade and energy crisis; encroachment of international border; construction of series of unilateral embankments close to ‘No man’s land’; grand design promoting ‘Akhanda Bharat’; sustained cultural invasion; infiltration of Nepalese leaderships, bureaucracy and security organs; manipulation of mainstream and regional political parties for the control of the government; armament race or major wars/ conflicts (including nuclear) in South Asia; unilateral damming, diversion, and interlinking of international rivers; regional and international instability; mass migration of people caused by the impact of ecological disaster in South Asia; and international terrorism.

Threats to Nepal’s Vital Interests – External/ Internal:

External forces are more likely to exploit internal sources to further their interests, which are camouflaged in different terms and conditions. Some of such most likely threats are: sustained political instability caused by fractious political parties and self-serving political leaderships working under foreign influence; external manipulation of Nepal’s new Constitution writing process; Nepal government’s disregard and indifference to the border encroachment; ‘hyper-dependence’ on India; illegal trafficking in humans, synthetic drugs, narcotics, counterfeits, and small arms and explosives; money laundering, organized crime, and cross-border ethnic violence; short-sighted treaties and agreements that could be made in future; activities promoting to ‘Greater Nepal’; control of Nepalese media from abroad; uncontrolled and hostile activities of INGOs within; religious and ideological fundamentalism/ extremism; and, endemic transcendental diseases like HIV/AIDS.

Threats to Nepal’s Vital Interests – Internal:

Some of the major internal challenges to national vital interests/ objectives include: crisis of national leaderships enjoying trust and confidence of all Nepalese; lack of consensus among the major political parties on what constitutes national purpose and vital interests; doubt over the credibility of the CA for writing of new Constitution on time; partisan politics prevailing over vital issues such as national political system, federation of Nepal, integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, the questions of identity politics raised by ethnic and regional groups; declining national unity and centripetal force; politicization of national institutions including judiciary, educations, bureaucracy, and security forces; ill/ myopic management of Nepal’s vital resources ‘water’ and geopolitical/ geo-strategic location; very low economic growth rate; widening socio-economic disparity between the haves and haves not; and, the possibility of economic meltdown.

Other internal challenges to national interests are:

Increasing number of armed groups; massive corruption, increasing culture of violence, crime, and disregard for law and order, and criminalization of politics; controversial citizenship issue; underdeveloped civil-military relation; regional, ethnic and class differences, social discrimination, insecurity of marginalized groups; brain drain of population; centrifugal force gaining ground; rising violence leading to internal displacement of people; and, over population.

Most Dangerous Threat to Nepal’s Vital Interests:

The most dangerous security threat to Nepal may come from internal cultural conflicts including:

• Inter-religious -Hindus versus others like Muslim, Christians
• Inter-ethnic/ Racial- Khas/ Mongols, Madhises versus Tharus, and
• Inter-regional- Pahades versus Madhises

Such cultural sort of conflicts are most likely to trigger chain reaction across the nation-state and invite regional and international interference.

If the ongoing situation of political instability and lawlessness carries on infinitely, Nepal is bound to face the destiny of a ‘failed state’, which certainly invites foreign intervention.

Due to open/ unsecured border, Terai with almost 50% of the total population and serving as economic and political core, remains very vulnerable to several types of threats. The self-serving leaderships holding the reigns of national power could be equally dangerous to vital national interests. Moreover, the worst outcome of an unwise federation of Nepal could be the disintegration and ultimately disappearance of sovereign Nepal from world map.

(This article was first published in Telegraph Weekly on 2009-12-02)