–Story prepared before Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan-August 14.
N. P. Upadhyaya, Kathmandu: As the date of the US forces leaving Afghanistan is nearing, the international powers have begun making “substantial efforts” as much as they could to bring the warring factions in Afghanistan to arrive at a “negotiated settlement” so that the region takes a sigh of relief.
Sincere efforts are in progress.
If peace prevails in Afghanistan, then it would not only be South Asia to benefit but will have a profound impact on the expanded and the extended territories in and around Afghanistan-the Gulf and the neighboring Central Asian States.
Observers say that peace in Afghanistan will for sure benefit even countries like China and far flung Russia.
Talking to the New York Times Daily in June this year, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had said that “Pakistan had used the maximum leverage it could on the Taliban”.
In fact PM Khan maintains that the day the US President Joe Biden announced that his forces will leave Afghanistan for good this August end, the Taliban concluded that they have won the game without fighting the US and the NATO forces.
“The Talibs bagged a victory without facing difficulties”, so believe the international observers who have been closely watching the war in Afghanistan that has unfolded in the recent weeks and months.
The observers instead maintain that the US should have worked first on “peace negotiations” between the Afghanistan government led by President Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan-Taliban(s).
The Afghan-Talibs now have upper hand, claim international relations expert and so believes PM Khan.
Khan even wrote an article in the Washington Post suggesting the US that a hasty withdrawal of the US forces would neither be in the interest of the US nor of the region which obviously includes Pakistan.
And it is this supposed upper hand that has emboldened the Talibs in the recent days and weeks to capture several provinces in Afghanistan.
Sources say that the Talibs now control a third of Afghanistan’s regional cities giving a devastating setback to the fighting government’s forces.
The speed with which the Talibs are advancing towards Kabul-the seat of the Ashraf Ghani led Afghan government, what the International observers and media predict that Kabul could fall within three months or even less.
With this Ashraf Ghani has begun feeling isolated but yet has not exhausted.
Ghani even reportedly accuses the US that it is leaving Afghanistan to the mercy of the advancing dangerous Talibs.
Even if the Talibs continue to advance towards Kabul, concurrently the insurgents have been attending the Troika Plus meet and other similar international “peace” initiatives in Doha-the Qatari capital in a position of “strength” and have begun pressing the international mediators to “unseat President Ghani” first to continue the talks.
While the Talibs have been demanding the “resignation of President Ghani”, then similar voices have begun emanating from the Afghanistan’s domestic power corridors which implies that Afghanistan will have peace only when sitting President Ghani resigned.
Ghani is adamant simply because he is being supposedly supported by the US and Godi-India.
While the Talibs are mounting pressure on Ashraf Ghani to vacate the Presidency then he appears less interested in quitting from the current Chair and in order to linger his stay in the Presidential Chair has approached India for express help to challenge the Talibs.
In what is being taken as an unprecedented move, the Ashraf Ghani government has sought “robust air support” from India as the fight between the Afghan government forces and the Talibs insurgents grew more intense in the last couple of days, writes Nayanima Basu for The Print dated August 10, 2021.
The Afghani establishment now wants the Indian Air Force (IAF) to come into the country and support the Afghan Air Force.
The talks for the assistance of the Indian Air Force appears to have first cropped during a recent phone call between Afghani Foreign Minister Haneef Atmar and his Indian counterpart-the known destabilizer of the South Asian region S. Shankar.
However, even if the Afghani request is taken by New Delhi in a positive manner, the question is how the Indian Air force is to enter the Afghani territory?
Will Pakistan allow the Indian Air force flights to fly over its sky? Perhaps not.
And China will definitely not.
If so then even if India wishes to assist President Ghani, it has to take a long route which is perhaps not desirable.
Troika Plus in Doha:
South Asian media sources opine that the four diplomatic veterans from Russia, China, the US and Pakistan led the Troika Plus talks in Doha for hours and happily the four envoys were unanimous that reduction in violence by Taliban is must for lasting peace in Afghanistan.
Representing the extended Troika plus in Doha, Qatar were Zamir Kabulov from Russian Federation, Zalmay Khalilzad from the US, Yue Xiaoyong from China and Mohammad Sadiq Khan.
The Troika Plus meeting took into account the latest security situation across Afghanistan and agreed to extend all possible support to the Kabul administration in the prevailing situation, reports the Nation newspaper.
The Troika Plus meet in Doha, Qatar August 11. 2021, has also called for an “accelerated peace process for Afghanistan” as a, what it calls, “matter of great urgency” and for an immediate halt to attacks on provincial capitals and cities in Afghanistan, reports Reuters from Dubai.
To a query of the reporters, one of the prominent member of the Troika Plus from China, Mr. Yue Xiaoyong said that it was just the beginning of the talks and both the sides have agreed that there can only be a political solution to the ongoing war.
The Pakistan envoy Mohammad Sadiq Khan during the Troika Plus meet in Doha reportedly shared Pakistan’s structured policy and stance on the latest situation in Afghanistan and reiterated that formation of a broad based interim government in Kabul through negotiations is the only option to contain the deteriorating Afghani the situation.
As the Talibs are advancing and claiming several towns and territories across Afghanistan, writes, Emily Schmall for the New York Times dated Aug. 13, 2021, pressure is mounting of neighboring Pakistan from the US which wants Islamabad to “do more”.
The US and other international powers believe that Pakistan yet has considerable political leverage on the advancing Talibs. The US is pressing Pakistan to press the Talibs to bring in for a “negotiated settlement”.
Pakistan says it has now limited clout.
In a tougher note Emily Schmall writes that while Pakistan is voicing support for a peaceful solution globally, however, the government of Imran Khan has been quieter at home.
“It has not spoken out against pro-Taliban rallies within Pakistan. It also hasn’t condemned reported Taliban atrocities as the group marches toward Kabul”, adds Emily.
Emily adds, from America’s perspective, the main ask is for Pakistan to exercise its leverage in pushing the Taliban to reduce violence and toward an intra-Afghan peace deal”.
Pakistan says repeatedly that “peace in Afghanistan” is a must for peace and stability not only in Pakistan but also to the entire South Asian region so it will do all it can to establish peace in Afghanistan.
Pakistan being the next door neighbor, a disturbed Afghanistan is not in the interest of the Pakistani stability and tranquility.
The US and the Afghani leadership possess a different view.
Some international relations expert opine that a politically disturbed Afghanistan upon the US withdrawal this August bodes equally ill for the neighboring Central Asian nations along with Pakistan.
China too can’t escape the impact of an unstable Afghanistan.
Experts say that both Russia and China are likely to feel the heat that may emanate from Afghanistan’s northern border.
In the wake of the likelihood of the attack from the Afghani side, the Russians, Tajiks, and the Uzbeks’ military forces reportedly have had preemptory drill to check any attack from the Afghani side to the Central Asian states.
The Russians and the Chinese too have been engaged through Troika Plus in bringing the Talibs and the Afghani government to the table to have a “negotiated settlement”.
On a different level, both Russia and China have their spoken and at times unspoken ties with the Talibani insurgents.
And at a very very official level, China in the recent past hosted the meet of a considerable size of a high level Talibani delegation in the city of Tianjin wherein the Chinese State Counselor and foreign Minister Wang Yi met the delegation.
Media reports said that a red carpet was rolled out in China in honor of the high-ranking Taliban delegates which was led by none less than the co-founder and deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.
This explains that the Chinese authorities have already inched closer to the Talibs and vice versa.
This is smart diplomacy indeed.
Sources says that China has a military base on the Tajik side of the Afghan-Tajik border.
Remarkably, Central Asian states are believed to be highly under Russian influence.
India too has some exclusive ties with some Central Asian states.
If it is so then the Russians, Chinese and the Indian may collide with each other time permitting. The chances remain.
High placed sources confirm that the Afghan-Taliban(s) too have intimate ties with the Russians.
As of Pakistan, it have had some leverage on the Talibs and thus pushed them to attend the talks in Doha with the US authorities.
Pakistan’s official stance is that it would prefer a peaceful outcome in Afghanistan, some sort of a power-sharing arrangement reached after an intra-Afghan peace deal, writes Madiha Afzal for the Brookings dated August 6, 2021.
And this stance more or less was disseminated by Mohammad Sadiq Khan-the official in Doha.
Clarifying his stance, PM Imran Khan recently has stated that Pakistan doesn’t speak for the Taliban, nor is it responsible for it. Pakistan argues that a “rushed” U.S. withdrawal before peace talks has set the stage for the current situation.
But yet, the US would want Pakistan to do more.
While the US demands more from Pakistan to bring in peace in Afghanistan then Pakistan too demands its ties with the US be not limited with the prevalence of peace in Afghanistan.
“It expects the ties to be based on “geo-economics” that takes care of trade, investment and connectivity”, say official government sources in Islamabad.
Very freshly Pakistan Prime Minister has said that the US just wants to use the country to clear the mess in Afghanistan.
Khan says straight that the US prefers India over Pakistan.
Notably, not only the Troika Plus had a meet in Doha, side by side Doha also hosted a meeting of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors.
Others who participated were Russia, the United Nations and the US.
The aims and the objectives of the discussions that were held in Doha were “to seek a possible common ground” between the two Afghan adversaries “at a time when (the Taliban) have started occupying provincial capitals,” various media agencies have reported.
The US is advised to encourage the Troika Plus to intensify its efforts for a “negotiated settlement” in Afghanistan.
President Ghani should resign if his leaving the chair brings in peace in Afghanistan.
Fresh reports claims: “President Ashraf Ghani has left Afghanistan for Tajikistan as Taliban closes in on Kabul, according to the country’s top peace negotiator Abdullah Abdullah. “The former Afghan president has left the nation,” Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, said in a video on his Facebook page”.
The US is sending additional troops to Afghanistan to evacuate its citizens and diplomatic staffs. That’s all.