N. P. Upadhyaya (Aryal)

Kathmandu: The fragrance of the G20 Bali, Indonesia meet, November 14, 2022, was short lived and so it evaporated in the thin ethereal medium instantly and has been replaced by “confrontation” over expected “reconciliation” in between the two political giants, the US and China.

All that happened was in quick sequence much to the surprise of the global population.

In between November 14, 2022 to December 9, 2022, world politics catapulted in such a fashion that further deteriorated the already strained US and China ties which was expected to “cool down” the tensed ties between the two upon the meet of the two heads met in Bali, Indonesia.

The November 15, 2022, joint military exercise of the US and China in Uttara Khand, India, close to the Chinese borders aggravated the political situation from bad to worse and this time the victim was the South Asian landmass that now extend up to China.

Reacting to the US-India drill near to the China border, the Global Times dated December 4, 2022, through an article had explicitly mentioned that “Washington wants to strengthen military cooperation with India to embolden India to provoke China in a more aggressive manner, which can be said to have a strong implication of instigation”.

It could be a mere speculation that with the end of the mutual India-US military drill, as the Global Times, had predicted on December 4, 2022, the Indian and the Chinese military men came face to face and clashed with each other at the Tawang border.

It is this border in between India and China that the two enemy army at times clash with each other.

Tawang is a place which the both conflicting parties claim to be their territory.

The entire Tawang area is an inhospitable region.

India claims that it is an integral part of Arunachal Pradesh then on the other hand, China claims that it was the southern part of China’s Tibet.

When the two countries clash then let it be called a disputed territory a la Kashmir.

The violent clash of the two different military men, from India and China, has all of a sudden brought the attention of the world politics to this part of the world.

South Asia has become a flash point and it is India that has threatened the prevalence of peace in this or that pretext.

What is frightening all the more is the US’s expressly taking the side of the Indian establishment.

Has the December 9 clash and the November 15 US-India joint drill any tacit linkages?

Is it that the December 9 clash in between India and China at the Tawang border was an intended affair aimed at disturbing peace?

Is it that the Global Times presumption made on December 4, 2022, that “Washington wants to strengthen military cooperation with India to embolden India to provoke China in a more aggressive manner” is accurate?

Observers in Nepal opine that the US may or may not have a desire to punch China from the Indian soil, but India’s grand design, as claimed by Nepal’s experts is that India prefers to use and over use the US’s military and political prowess/strength to “enflame” and pester China-India’s avowed nemesis.

This is what Nepal’s experience is about India gained over these seven decades when the two countries signed a fake and an unequal bilateral treaty falsely coined as a treaty of Peace and Friendship on October 31, 1950.

This fake and unequal treaty neither gave Nepal “Peace nor true Friendship” with the other partner that is India-born 1947.

Let’s call it a “Black Treaty”. 

The Nepali presumption is that India is luring the far flung US only to tame China using its military might and the sophisticated weapons.

Perhaps it is the sole reason as to why Indian establishment preferred to get included in the USs designed security mechanism called the QUAD.

The day, it is presumed in Nepal, the US abandons India and kicks out from the Quad, and India will voluntarily quit the Quad the next moment concluding that if not able to provoke China then what’s the need to remain inside the Quad conglomerate?

But no! India will not abandon the US for a simple reason that it wants to send millions and millions of Indian nationals to the US to earn “US dollars” to swell its foreign currency reserve.

The influx of the poor Indians in the US is so high that sooner than later, Indians may vie for the US Presidency.

Back to the main story: The joint India-US drill that took place very much close to the China border in mid-November, 2022, tentatively hinted that the drill has something to do with the Chinese and the prediction came to true on December 9, 2022, when Indian military men tried to pounce upon the Chinese soldiers at the Tawang sector.

What gave a great and equally dangerous political twist to this India-China clash at the border (December 9, 2022) is the USs reaction or say comments made on the bang wherein it states that “the US supported India’s efforts at controlling the situation after the fresh clash between Indian and Chinese troops near Tawang sector in Arunachal Pradesh along the Line of Actual Control”
The US Pentagon Press secretary Pat Ryder said, “We will continue to remain steadfast in our commitment to ensure the security of our partners. We fully support India’s efforts to control the situation.”

This speaks that the US is siding with India as India is a strategic partner in the US designed security mechanism-the QUAD along with Australia and Japan.

Its corollary would be that the US will forget and forgive thousands of Indian follies only because India partners the QUAD?

This is dangerous. The US must take up the role of mediator but not a role that visibly takes the side of the recognized expansionist of the South Asian region.

This is not all. The frightening part is that the “US department of Defense continues to watch developments along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at India-China border, We have seen People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to amass forces & build military infrastructure along so-called LAC”.

All these snippets woven together, what comes to the fore is that the US will continue to encourage the South Asian hegemon-India in provoking China through Chinese soil only because India is a significant partner in the QUAD scheme which is generally believed to have come in existence only to contain China.

And the US unfailing and unconditional support to India has been made close on the heels of the Indonesian meet of President Joe Biden with President Xi Jinping of China.

All the “made commitments” in Bali during the G20 meet have gone astray?

Is it that the US is determined to continue with its appointing the Indian regime as the “policeman” of South Asia?

If so then the US is committing a blunder in that if and when the Russian federation provides with lucrative sweets to the Indian regime much the same way as it used to award India at time of the Cold War, if one were to recall.

The US in doing so, has lost the sympathies of the smaller South Asian nations for multiple obvious reasons. India will sooner than later, damage the credibility of the US in South Asia. The US must understand this fact. Earlier the better.

China tensed with Nepal-India joint drill:

To add insult to injury, close on the heels of India-US military exercise close to the Chinese border, China just witnessed the joint Nepal-India joint exercise that began on December 16, 2022, near to Lumbini-the birth place of Lord Buddha.

China which considers Nepal a close friend with the India grown and nourished Nepali Communists is the great loser in Nepal in that the Communists operating in Nepal were all “controlled and dictated” by the Indian regime.

The fresh military practice in Nepal just after the India-US exercise does tell so many things unspoken.

What is evident from all these separate and joint endeavors that “all is not well” with the global politics.

The US and India are against China and India is teasing China with the USs strength and military prowess.

Clearly, even a beginner of politics could conclude that the recent politico-military exercise of India, Nepal and the US are on the same wavelength and presumably aimed at provoking China from all possible angles and regions.

This also speaks of the Chinese weak diplomacy in Nepal. China’ can’t compete India in Nepal frankly speaking.

That India’s reach is deep inside Nepali politics could be assessed from the fresh effort of China pleading Nepal to respond quickly on the extension of the Chinese railway to Nepal.

China’s mid-November proposal to Nepal in this regard remains in limbo.

China’s expands its global contact:

A China stunned hopefully by the events aimed at cornering China, the latter kept itself heavily engrossed in “making friends” to those countries who were once “darling” of the lone super power-the US.

China’s eagle eyes were centered on the countries of the Gulf more so on Saudi Arabia which enjoyed “excellent and cordial” ties with the US and freshly left to the mercy of Allah.

When President Xi arrived in Riyadh, the Saudis who upon the advent of Joe Biden were bit annoyed and frustrated with the US president’s changed attitudes.

Crown Prince Salman, MBS, is reported to have angrily described the US as “just a partner” and nothing more than that.

Saudi Arabia’s too changed its stance on the US whose net benefit will go to the pockets of China first and then to Russia.

The Saudi Kingdom under initiative of Prince Salman brought in scores of leaders near and far to Riyadh and sent appropriate signals to the US that if US ignores the KSA then why not to inch closer to China-a fitting match to the US in the current pattern of world politics?

The excitement of the Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani was so high that he rushed to Riyadh to pay a courtesy call on the Chinese President Xi leaving the ongoing Doha World Cup.

Media sources authentically claim that Saudi Arabia and China signed a strategic partnership agreement during President Xi’s visit which underlined the increasing relations between Beijing and Riyadh.

To recall, as stated in earlier paragraphs Riyadh was seven decades long strategic partner of the US which of late is seeking greater self-reliance by having a visible tilt to China-the bete noir of the US.

China has entered into the key countries of the Gulf with a big bang this time presumably only after assessing that the US was less interested now in these countries.

Writes the China Daily dated December 12, 2022 that “for more than 2,000 years, the Chinese and Arab civilizations, linked by the ancient Silk Road, have engaged in cordial exchanges to interact and inspire each other across the Asian continent”.

According to Reuters dated December 10, 2022, President Xi said that his high level meetings with the leaders of the Gulf countries and constructive dialogue with the Arab League was a ‘milestone’.

The Reuters adds that the U.S. has become sensitive with the sudden growing Chinese influence in the Arab world and that Arabs defy U.S. pressure to limit China ties, cut off Russia.

The China Daily Reports that so far, 34 investment agreements in sectors such as energy (green hydrogen, solar), information technology, cloud services, transportation, logistics, medical industries, housing and construction have been signed. A series of important events show that a new era of greater collaboration will start between China and Arab states. Joint collaboration in various fields, from economy to oil and gas trade, has been seen as a milestone.

While being in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, President Xi Jinping emphatically said that China plans to cooperate with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries in the fields of nuclear energy, nuclear security and space exploration.

Now with the fresh developments in the Gulf after President Xi’s visit, Pakistan being an “iron brother” of China, observers hope that this South Asian nation also benefits from the enhanced relations between the Gulf countries and China.

The fact is also that Pakistan already enjoys cordial ties with the Gulf countries so with an effective diplomacy Pakistan can now enjoy added advantage.

The friendship in between Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Pakistan remains excellent.

And very freshly the KSA has extended the term of $3 billion deposit in State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) through the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) which also denotes that the state of bilateral ties remain intimate one.

To sum up, the summary failure of the November 14, Bali meet of the US and China and the developments that have followed after the Bali meet in South Asia are frightening indeed.
What is scaring the Nepali nationals is the extra-diplomatic activities of the Indian envoy in Kathmandu.

India can never be a reliable and trustworthy friend of Nepal but instead the Southern neighbor more often than not acts like an “enemy”.

Just take for example, the joint Nepal-India military drill and the unwarranted arrival of the Indian Army man Major Gen J.S. Sandhu. Why for his visit?

And the most important question is whether China and the US will tolerate the jingoistic role of the Indian expansionist regime in Nepal? Conversely, what also could be questioned that will China and India tolerate if and when the US flexes its muscle in Nepal?

Nepal is soon becoming a playground/battlefield for these three powers: The US, India and China. This is for sure.

With all these put together, isn’t it that Nepali sovereignty and independence will experience a formidable threat in the near future? Keep on guessing.

Concluding remarks:

While speaking in the UN Security Council December 15, 2022, the Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar had made a derogatory remarks on Pakistan and in response the Pakistani foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto responded with equal force.

And this episode is making rounds in the media sector around the world excluding Nepal for obvious reasons.

Media in Nepal prefers not to publish any “news material” that is against Indian regime.

The “inner motive” is clear. Isn’t it?

The India-Pakistan spat began in earnest when the Indian Minister described Pakistan as the “epicenter “of terrorism and the instant response to his remark was, (sic), : He says, “Osama Bin Laden dead but the Butcher of Gujrat lives”.

Modi was banned (from) entering into the US soil till he remains the Prime Minister of India.

The Butcher of Gujrat became Butcher of Kashmir.

The RSS derived the inspiration from SS the elite force of Nazi Reich & Hitler & denies Mahatma Gandhi’s philosophy.”

The Pakistani foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has appealed the international community to help Pakistan combat and go after those who backed, supported, financed and facilitated terrorism in Pakistan.

FM Bilawal says, “Ask the people of Gujrat and Kashmir as to who is the real Butcher? “

That’s all.