Nepal Council of World Affairs (NCWA)
Background:
After the formation of “Immediate neighbors and neighborhood relations committee meetings were held at the meeting hall of NCWA in Pulchowk, Lalitpur, for conceptualizing the major areas of interest to Nepal and the Nepalese. On these meetings, interesting discussions on the topic provided a reasonable basis for elaborate discussions on the subjects thus identified. During these meetings the convener of the committee tried to seek members’ views and guidance on issues requiring urgent and immediate attention as well as other issues needing a longer-term perspective and handling.
Failing to receive adequate number of views that would obviously limit the value of the discussion output, the committee had no choice but to work with whatever little it got in the process. This scene reflects the general status of Nepal’s national policies neither firmly set up nor executed owing to lack of serious coordination among the political parties and their policy makers at all levels.
Brief outline of agendas:
For Nepal, its bilateral relations (also termed as immediate neighborhood by NCWA) with India and China overwhelmed other issues. Thus the coverage of Nepal-India and Nepal-China has been provided space in this report as given below:
# Nepal and India Bilateral security, water resources management, education, health, scientific research and trainings;
# Nepal and China-Bilateral security, transfer of technology education, health, scientific research and trainings;
# Besides, Nepal is aspiring for more number of seats in Indian engineering and medical institutions as well as Chinese academic institutions preferably on grant-in-aid basis.
# In terms of regional financial security and otherwise Nepal’s continuing access to South East and Central Asia is through regional organizations including SAARC, BIMSTEC, and SCO among others.
# unimpeded trade to and investment from industrialized countries including the US, Japan, Russian Federation and European Union to Nepal would help stabilize Nepal as its strengthened security guarantees its national security. Lacking development and rising unemployment has led to social frictions that is a sure recipe for weakened security troubling both Nepal’s neighbors.
# Further, Nepal wants to be an active member of regional projects such as Asian Road Network, Media Network, Energy Network, Agricultural program.
Some analysis and suggestions:
In order to get the utmost benefit from the emerging economic giants, Nepal may need to assess itself thoroughly on its political system and governance, economic infrastructure and development models, and its resources.
# in this regard, there is an absolute need to look into the new political exercise Nepal has embarked upon-Federal Democratic Republic that requires supporting national-level institutions as well as determined leadership for its execution. Nepal’s development pace has remained quite slow, primarily owing to utter lack of inter-ministerial coordination, local level team work that has to work with representatives of different political parties. This problem is bound to exist despite new ideas, structures and mechanisms since the present political parties of Nepal present polity in its extreme-far left and far right as is generally termed. This is the reality that presents difficulties in varying degree in every plan/program meant for the good of the people. Many experts of Nepal, trained and encouraged by Western development planners, call it “lack of Absorptive Capacity” of under-developed nations. So, this situation points clearly to the need for “Capacity Building that should be worked out by Nepali stakeholders who should know better than the resident foreigners from missions who think they know more about Nepal than the Nepalese. Policy makers and planners of Nepal have failed the country miserably when it was subjugated to foreign institutions for simply administering the funds that it received from generous donors, known an “Aid Coordination”.
# Today’s Nepal is different what it was before. It has changed from a central governance model to federal system it has also become a Republic from a Kingdom. These changes, together with secularism, in its constitution require a full understanding of these concepts by the political parties’ academicians and the general public without which the country will become ungovernable at home and unclear identity abroad. The situation today after the dissolution of the parliament followed by uncertainty at several counts dissolution remaining or being rejected by the Constitutional court, holding of general elections, continuation of protests, peaceful as well as violent, places Nepal in an awkward position. This period of inactivity must be utilized to conduct studies by think tanks, research institutions, universities, and the government itself for giving a new face to Nepal based on its policies—domestic and international. There are two ways of embarking: Nepal could come up with a comprehensive subject encompassing political, economic, security cultural/social, and human development; or alternatively it could take up specific topic separately on its own merit for now. Nevertheless, both aspects of studies are equally important and demand urgent action. The only difference would be its execution subject to the necessity that emerges in the aftermath of the court’s verdict and political party’s actions’ independent or forced by outside forces.
# before delving into an agenda it would be essential to understand India’s mindset and Nepali psyche, similar exercise is warranted in the Nepal-China context. Nepal India relations are often swayed by perceptions created by the intellectuals of either country, mostly based by self-interest rather than people’s common understanding and goodwill. With increasing Chinese interest and activities in Nepal, a section of Nepali society, however small, is building its perception on the Chinese as well.
Both these activities in relation to Nepal’s neighbors are understandable to the patriotic Nepali public which cherishes its independence and sovereignty above everything else—the reason why the hardworking Nepali public smiles against all adversities since they know that remain independent and free.
# Ongoing current discussions between Nepal and her neighbors, railroad from India-Kathmandu and China Kathmandu have assumed high importance for the simple reason that Nepal is vying to be a transit country with an eye on burgeoning India-China trade of goods and commodities;
# Present day Nepal presents two stark strengths:
Nepal’s geographical location between India and China, and its rich natural resources including perennial source of snow fed water resource. Since India is primarily dependent on Nepal’s waters for drinking and irrigation purposes, Nepal’s importance to India is unlikely to lessen in future whereas China’s TAR (Tibet Autonomous Region) is shielded from the outside world by Nepal, China, too, needs to befriend Nepal for protecting and preserving the riches to be had in TAR.
# Presently, Nepal’s strength lays on its hands-on experience of conflict resolution (coming out of intractable conflict in 2007) as well as disaster management (out of the massive earthquake of 2015, and successfully managing regular disasters from landslides, flooding, food shortages).
# Last, but not the least, Nepal is bestowed with unique concepts of peace from Buddhist monks, Hindu saints and seers and a well-trained highly disciplined and humane security forces.
# other important issues:
While the above outlined issues were more or less discussed in the meetings at NCWA, lack of serious interest and perhaps time of the members of the committee limited the magnitude of deliberations on bilateral issues important to Nepal. Some more points are given hereunder for future interactions:
#India’s cooperative federalism policy to support sub regional strategy may or may not apply in the case of Nepal but rebuilding mutual trust with neighbors including reviewing past bilateral treaties and agreements through a joint mechanism for Nepal is an opportunity, similar to Bhutan updating its 1949 treaty with India. (Yhome, Asia Pacific Bulletin 2017).
# India’s overriding security concern, and Nepal’s lack of progress, particularly of joint projects, fuel 2 negative view of India in Nepalese. (Bista unpublished memo, 2019).
# India’s neighborhood first policy after PM Modi coming to power offers new ground for cooperation in several areas including speeding up existing development projects such as mega hydropower plants.
(Bista, unpublished memo, 2019).
# Nepal’s strategic location between India and China and age old relations now turning into multiplicity areas provides multiple openings for strengthening of bilateral relations.
# India needs to play its role to bring stability and development in Nepal besides managing Nepal’s media perception against India. (Jaiswal, IPCS 2017).
# Chinese ‘periphery diplomacy ‘engaging countries on its borders (14 with land borders, and 6 maritime boundaries), though not necessarily clear on whether the periphery is a smaller one or a larger one Nevertheless, economics and trade is the central pillar of Chinese periphery diplomacy including the belt and road initiative (BRI) which is concentrate. in China’s near-abroad, especially South and South East Asia. (Stokes, US Institute of Peace, 2020).
# China is concerned about Nepal being used by external forces against its strategic interests, mostly relating to Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) stability.
Nepal’s way forward:
# judicious use of its water resources by Nepal would ensure prosperity for present generation and happiness for future generations. By keeping its borders secured under a sound national security policy Nepal would support its Northern neighbor’s efforts aimed at preventing secession of TAR. This exercise would also help its Southern neighbor’s endeavor to prevent untoward activities such as terrorism, fake currency, drugs etc. in India;
# given the reality, a weak Nepal is always vulnerable to destructive forces within and outside. First Nepal needs to build its strength for taking care of its citizens as well as deal with its neighbors as an independent and sovereign nation with mutual regard and respect that it rightly deserves.
# Although Nepal in her present status can never be as strong and powerful as her closest neighbors, India and China, yet it can develop into a smart nation commanding respect and attention from the world including its contiguous neighbors.
Nepal needs to project a unique image of its Own/distinct and outstanding based on: practicing good governance, adhering to rule of law, giving due regard to international norms and practices, and above all, being a compassionate and tolerant nation;
# Besides taking part in the sub-regional and regional initiatives aimed at accelerating the pace of economic development, Nepal can start its own initiative of “conflict resolution and peace building” derived from its own hands on experience. Additionally, it can also become a champion of disaster management from its own experience;
# Nepal cannot afford to miss this opportunity to spread the message of peace the world over as it is fully supported by its own people engaged in deriving concepts and practicing them as well. It can not only impart its rich understanding of peace handed down to generations by Buddhist monks, Hindu saint and seers, but also demonstrate with visible effect by its well-trained, highly disciplined and human security forces.
Future discourses:
Normally things do not rapidly change in international relations especially in bilateral relations. Contrary to it, past one year has changed this perception altogether.
Thus, future discussions, apart from the ones outlined above, need to also look into the following matters:
# Kalapani issue brought to the fore both by India and Nepal has become the most contentious issue today. After India’s placing the land area of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura, in its reorganized administrative map in 2019 and then opening up a road passing through Lipulekh—claimed by Nepal as its own, Nepal, too, brought out an administrative map-also ratified by Nepal’s parliament and okayed by the President of Nepal has given a jolt to Indo-Nepal relations.
# Infighting within the ruling party (NCP), enjoying nearly two third majority in the federal parliament and the provinces Nepal, seems to have prompted Chinese chief envoy to Nepal making several rounds to dissenting leaders of NC supposedly containing the possible split of the party. Perceived as China’s excessive diplomatic overtures in Nepal’s internal affairs some questions are being raised about the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence policy exercised by the two countries to the satisfaction of their people.
# Nepal’s successive governments, during the Nepali congress (NC) party headed by former PM Sushil Koirala, and Nepal Communist Party (NCP) headed by incumbent PM KP Sharma Oli, have signed and pursuing vigorously to get a ratification of MCC-Millennium Challenge Corporation Account proposed by the US from the parliament. There are two outstanding issues on this matter: whether the agreement aimed at strengthening the road infrastructure and availing more power for Nepal from the transmission lines needed to be presented at the parliament a it squarely is the prerogative of the sovereign government Some high level members of NCP question the terms couched in the agreement as detrimental to Nepal’s national interest and thus demand amendments of such clauses even if the ratification process were to be pursued.
# Although the concept of trilateral cooperation among India Nepal-China has been discussed about for quite some, nothing much has happened mainly lacking good understanding between India and China. India is not happy with China with its lack of support to India’s bid for the UN Security Council, entry into Nuclear suppliers group whereas China’s BRI is not supported by India and after the recent border scuffle in Ladakh it may take some time for them to normalize relations. The trilateral cooperation project, undoubtedly a beneficial proposition for all three countries, rests for now.
# These newer developments certainly merit full attention of Nepal’s national leaders and must be sorted out on a priority basis.
End text.
# The author is the NCWA team of experts.
We are highly indebted to the entire team of the Nepal Council of Affairs ( NCWA) team of foreign policy experts. Ed. Upadhyaya.