A Geopolitical Perspective

Bhim Nath Baral

Associate Professor

Department of Political Science,

Prithvi Narayan Campus, Pokhara

Indian interest in Nepal:

There are very few countries who share a natural relation like Nepal and India. The relation has been growing ever since the existence of the two countries. However, the relation between Nepal and British India was determined by the Sugauli Treaty signed after Anglo-Nepal War in 1816. Still, the real history of relation between Delhi and Kathmandu began after maintaining diplomatic relation on August 1947 (Muni,2016a, p. 282) and after signing on Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 1950.

Nepal and India share about 1880 km. open border (it is about 1930 k.m. after the publication of new map including Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani on 20 May 2020 by the Government of Nepal), which creates several security challenges between these two historical allies. It is not relevant to raise the question in close relation between two countries, but there are some security issues between the countries that sometimes create challenges.

The question of security of India emerged after the independence of India. Division of Hindustan into India and Pakistan and subsequent unrest in the region created a serious security challenge upon newly independent India. Nepal, the northern neighbor, remained one of the critical concerns on the security matter. Jawaharlal Nehru’s speech in Indian parliament on 27 November 1959 is sufficient to understand Indian security interest in Nepal. The speech reads, “…any aggression against Bhutan and Nepal would be regarded as an aggression against India…” (Dahal, 2018, p. 55). Further, India’s concern on security matter is visible on Nehru’s statement at the background of Communist revolution in China in 1949. It states, our interest in the internal condition of Nepal has become still more acute and personal because of the development across our borders, to be frank especially those in China and Tibet. Besides our sympathetic interests in Nepal, we were also interested in the security of our country.

From time immemorial the Himalayas have provided us with a magnificent frontier.

Of course, they are no longer as impassable as they used to be, but are still fairly effective. We cannot allow that barrier to be penetrated because it is the principal barrier to India. Therefore, much we appreciate the independence of Nepal, we cannot allow anything to go wrong in Nepal or permit that barrier to be crossed or weakened because that would also be risk to our security. (Muni, 2016a, pp. 10-11)

This fact speaks that India is concerned about the expansion of Chinese influence into South Asia, which has been historically India’s sphere of influence. The recent Chinese engagement in Nepal adds fuel to this growing ‘perceived threat’ that China might someday cross this frontier.

Neighborhood Interest and Security Concerns in Nepal:

India is worried with the expanding its network between various terrorist outfits and Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI). From time to time, India has raised its concern to her Nepali counterparts among other bilateral issues. The arrest of deadly Lashkar terrorist, Abdul Karim Tunda, an accused of 26/11 attacks on Mumbai from Banwasa, the western border of Nepal, was the proof of the concern (Khan, 2016, p. 170). Likewise, hijacking of an Indian plane from Kathmandu and grounded in Kandhar of Afghanistan in 1999 made India suspicious about the use of Nepali land against India.

The flow of fake Indian currency is the next vital security concern of India in Nepal.

India considers that due to the weak security formation and operation system of Nepal, anti-Indian elements like Pakistani terrorists are enjoying in Nepal. It was found that India’s most wanted terrorist, Dawood Ibrahim is operating a Fake Indian Currency Note (FICN) with active help from ISI (Khan, 2016, p. 171). Further, the border dispute with China and the recent Chinese engagement in Nepal is the matter of doubt for India. Pointing out these factors, India has been pledging to Nepal government and political leaders to make treaties about keeping Indian Air Marshal Forces in airport of Nepal and extradition of anti-Indian criminal and terrorists to India. Considering poor security arrangement, India sent its 70 commandos during president Pranab Mukharjee’s visit to Nepal in 2016. Moreover, Nepal-India open border is a constant source of security challenge, which is often misused for unwanted activities like smuggling, human trafficking, increment in terrorist activities, drug abuse, illegal border trade and other criminal activities (Pyakurel, 2018, pp. 154-188).

Besides these, a growing Chinese influence in Nepal becomes the threat to India. In the words of Shyam Saran, Indian diplomat, India is worried on Chinese activities in building a number of highways from Tibetan side into Nepal, all the way down to the East-West highway that traverses Nepal, hacking through high mountains and difficult terrain. He also adds that the Tibet highway extended from Lhasa to Shinghatse and could well be extended to Kathmandu across the border in the next few years. He also accepts about Indian weakness for missing to catch the opportunity to take Nepal in side where China has seized the opportunity to walk in (Saran, 017, p. 171).

India-China rivalry and its impact in Nepal:

The history of Nepal is very close with the history of immediate neighbors. India and China are not only joined with Nepal through land but also are connected with the history from the beginning of civilization. Nepal’s relation with them may grew up and fell down due to political change in the respective country, but the relation at people’s level still remains unaffected (Verma, 2073, p. 171). In spite of several economic, political, cultural, religious and cultural attachment, India and China have legitimate security concerns and different threat perceptions about each other’s intentions in Nepal.

The Sino-Indian rivalry can be traced back to the era of the Cold War. In the post-colonial period, India was attempting to establish itself as a leader in Asia by taking a strong initiative role in the Non-aligned Movement. India, being a close Soviet ally, was viewed with caution by the newly established People’s Republic of China. The Tibetan uprising of 1959 and subsequent departure of Dalai Lama solidified the conflict of interest between China and India. The contention between two giants of Asia further exacerbated due to border dispute in Arunanchal Pradesh and Aksai Chin (Chand, 2016).

Neighborhood Interest and Security Concerns in Nepal:

Prior to 1950, Tibet was an autonomous region which was free from China’s control. As British power extended beyond the Himalayas, Tibet played the role of buffer. With China’s occupation on Tibet, Tibet ceased to serve the role of a buffer. The extension of Chinese frontier to Nepal has made Nepal a buffer state between China and India (Jaiswal, 2016a, p. 20). It was under Nehru’s leadership India had endeavored to maintain the spirit of Panchasheel, which had been inscribed into Sino-Indian relations by the 1954 agreement in Tibet. But this spirit, the feeling that Indians and Chinese were brothers (Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai) disappeared overnight with the Chinese invasion (Kodikara, 1987, p. 42).

China and India fought the war in 1962 and still are in debate in several issues. Border issue is yet not solved and tension often arises in matters of trade, investment and other global issues. Being situated in a favorable geographical position Nepal experiences direct impacts from their conflicts. Nepal is well aware of the growing competition between China and India for its influences in Nepal. Nepal has also understood its own strategic importance which was acknowledged way back in the eighteenth century as the King Prithvi Narayan Shah called Nepal as a ‘delicate yam between two boulders’(Hamal, 2014). However, Nepal has been remaining neutral in the conflict between India and China. Related to Doklam issue, in June 2017, Nepal had made it clear that it will stay neutral in the latest India-China standoff of Ladakh incident of 15 June 2020, and it wants this issue to be resolved peacefully. Nepal had also remained neutral in Indo-China war of 1962. However, the issue of balanced relation always remained a subject of debate. The formulation of foreign policy on the party line has created more fundamental issues. The leftist government is often blamed for following ‘pro-Chinese policy’ whereas the rightist or centrist government follows a ‘pro-India policy’. But it is the geo-political reality for any government of Nepal not be either ‘pro-Chinese’ or ‘pro-Indian’ (Dahal, 2009, p. 35).

So, equi-proximity should be maintained in dealing with our immediate neighbors. Highlighting the impacts of Sino-Indian conflict on Nepal, S. D. Muni writes, On the strategic side of Nepal, India and China triangular relationship, there is a very interesting phenomenon that if the two ends of a triangle come closer then they both become more distance to, and impinge adversely on, the third one. If China and Nepal get closer, India is uncomfortable. If India and Nepal get closer, China would be uncomfortable and if China and India get closer, Nepal should be uncomfortable for losing its strategic space. (Muni, 2016b, p. 8)

Conclusion:

Nepal occupies an extremely favorable location between China and India, the emerging powerhouse of the world. They have their own geographical position and deepening security interest in Nepal. Being small in capabilities, size and land-locked feature, Nepal has very few roles to play at global and regional level. However, its strategic position carries vital importance regarding the security interest of immediate neighbors.

It is mainly since the last two decades China and India are expressing their deep interest in Nepal. During the transition from monarchial rule to republican era in Nepal, China lost its permanent, reliable and strong political institution and India completely changed its ‘two pillars theory’ of ‘constitutional monarchy’ and ‘multiparty democracy’.

The competitive and cooperative relation between China and India has a direct impact on Nepal. China is in race to be global power and is very serious in Tibet matter in relation to Nepal. China is interested in making sure that Tibetan refugees do not create any nuisance from the Nepali territory. India, on the other hand, is worried with long open border and increasing Chinese influence in Nepal. India is not satisfied with the deterioration of its historical legacy in Nepal.

The China-India influence cannot be wiped-out from the foreign policy of Nepal, but what is needed to be done is to balance the China- India conundrum because both are equally important as far as the peaceful Nepal is concerned. It is evident that developing friendly relations with both neighbors is an integral part of our commitment to non-aligned movement and geopolitical reality.

Nepal should be committed to prohibit any activities on its land that may pose threat to the security concerns of neighbors or should Nepal tolerate any such activities threatening our independence and security. Nepal should clearly prioritize its national interest and adopt policies in managing its relationship with China and India that best preserve and promote our national interest. A sturdily sovereign Nepal can exercise and follow independent foreign policy to maintain a balance between both India and China.

# Thanks, the distinguished author and the Journal of Political Science, Vol. 21, February 2021, P. N. Campus Pokhara, Nepal.
# Concluded-Ed. Upadhyaya.