“When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It is only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.”
-Ricky Gervais.
N. P. Upadhyaya ( Aryal)
Biratnagar: A happy happy PM Modi upon meeting President Xi left for Greece-his next official destination after South Africa on August 24, 2023.
Back in Johannesburg, the 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) Summit ended well on August 24, 2023, however, on August 28, 2023, yet crushing news from China stunned the entire Indian regime and PM Modi personally.
This news reminded us all of the 1962 India-China war which had allowed King Mahendra of Nepal some breathing space to consolidate his “regime” in Nepal.
Indian Prime Minister Nehru wished King Mahendra’s favor for India during the war with China , however, the King tired of Indian coercion preferred to stay neutral all along the war that ended with India’s humiliating defeat.
India has not yet forgotten the defeat.
At least PM Modi may have not even dreamt of such earth-shaking news would greet him first when back home-India.
He had met President Xi just five days ago in Johannesburg.
Braving several non-ending humiliations, PM Modi came back from the foreign junket on August 26, 2023 and landed in Bengaluru, India only to be greeted by yet another mega dishonor right inside his own country-India.
Here too he had a minor bumpIn fact PM Modi landed in Bengaluru so that he could applaud the scientists who made India proud by sending the Chandra Yaan to Moon, however, as the destiny was in store for PM Modi was bit different than expected.
The Chief Minister of Karnataka, Siddaramaiah aka Siddu had already taken this privilege and PM Modi lagged behind
Yet he greeted the scientists and appreciated their role in making India proud with heavy heart.
Hardly had PM Modi relaxed for two good days in his dominion, news that emanated from Indian enemy-rival China shook PM Modi from within once again.
The news beamingly publicized by China , August 28, 2023, was the issuance of the “China Standard Map Edition 2023”, that jerked not only India but hit hard several countries, for example, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia , Vietnam and neighboring Nepal as well-the official tail of India.
Writing for the CNN news agency dated August 31, 2023, Rhea Mogul recalls some of President Xi Jinping’s highhandedness and says, among others, “Since his rise to power in 2012, leader Xi Jinping has sought to transform China into a global superpower, pushing an aggressive foreign policy and making bolder moves in several key flashpoints across Asia”.
Nepali observers opine that President Xi neither laughs…nor anger could be observed in his face…however, whenever he acts, he acts aggressively…thus annoying several countries at a time…so what he is…nobody knows so far…?
Such political personalities are difficult to read…and understand….
however, what is for sure is that such person look only for their national interests…..
Nepal’s international experts admit that Nepal is flanked by two notorious giants; the one in the South is almost an expansionist-funny personality and the other one in the North appears a heavy and rigid political celebrity who doesn’t speak but acts fast which serves his prime national interests including those of security as well.
Some say China is also a declared expansionist. China’s neighbors have felt the brunt.
During a trip to South Korea (ROK) in 2004, I was told by the Korean high officials at the foreign ministry that they were having two equally dangerous neighbor: China and Japan.
So what means to neighbor China is best know to the South Koreans.
Back to the point:
On August 28, 2023, when China released its up to date map for the world knowledge and forced consumption, this move almost gulped entire Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region (plateau) and made it known to adversary India that it was Chinese territory in essence.
A new but dangerous situation has thus developed in our part of the world with the new Chinese map.
India-China war appears imminent:
With the release of the fresh map, the already tensed India-China bilateral ties have heightened which apparently has brought both the rivals of the 1962 brawl face to face once again.
However, will they opt for a high scale war to settle their differences are not yet clear?
This forces us to predict that a high voltage war in between the two is imminent in the near future.
Nepal as a immediate neighbor must keep itself abreast of the develioping gloomy situation.
Reportedly, China is prepared for the war which is why it released a map that thought well in advance, expecting India will surely strike back.
India is prepared or not, but China appears to be ready for a full fledged war.
However, China-India trade runs in billions. It is this trade ties that may press both the countries to find some other alternatives than to go to a war.
Wisdom must prevail on both the sides.
Indian FM S. Shankar instead has ridiculed the Chinese stance saying …”China does such awkward acts every now and then and hence India doesn’t take the Chinese steps seriously.
”
The G20 meet has apparently kept the Indian FM Busy or else he would have made some filthy comments on China. Indian FM has an aggressive tone ever.
Having said this, yet India is shaking from within with the fear of full scale war with China in the horizon…
If at this time India and China come to the battle field then for sure Israel and the US shall side with India then the Russians will, given the present compelling situation, side with China or at least stay neutral.
The entire west shall favor India over China and the world will be witnessing two frightening wars: the one Russia versus Ukraine and the one in between China and India.
For sure, Russia will favor in that eventuality China.
With these developments in the horizon, Russian President Vladimir Putin is all scheduled to visit Beijing this October which will mean much for China and South Asia power balance.
Putin needs help at the moment and the countries which support Putin shall be in the good book of Russia for long.
It is time that Pakistan should cultivate ties with Russia for long term benefits.
An annoyed Russia with India in the Quad may shower bounties for Pakistan.
This Russian closeness with Pakistan may also prompt the US to compete the Russians in Pakistan.
However, a fair play is a must which needs shrewd diplomatic sharpness as it would be a play with the two world powers of the world. Both Russia and the US mean much for Pakistan and will remain important for all time to come.
Pakistan can’t afford to lose one at the cost of other.
Back to China’s map:
Writing for India’s mint news outlet dated August 29, 2023, Sayantani Biswas says the map released by China shows Arunachal which China claims as is Southern flank and Aksai Chin occupied by it in the 1962 war as part of its territory.
India has issued a “a strong protest through diplomatic channels.”
n response, as per the Global Times dated August 11, 2023, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a routine press briefing on recently said that the release of the new standard national map “is a routine practice in China’s exercise of sovereignty in accordance with the law.”
“We hope relevant sides can stay objective and calm, and refrain from over-interpreting the issue,” the spokesperson noted.
So much so that the new map of China includes Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea.
Observers say that China may have hit back to India’s political overtures recently that it made to enhance trade linkages with Taiwan-to which China claims its integral part.
India recently allowed Taiwan to open its trading office in Mumbai, media agencies had reported.
China may have concluded that whatever India is doing with Taiwan were all the tricks of the Quad.
However, this is just an assumption.
China distances Nepal too:
China which claimed umpteen times in the past that it would for sure protect Nepal’s territorial integrity and sovereignty has scoffed at Nepal in an amazing manner by not including the pointed map of Nepal that was officially launched by sovereign Nepal’s Parliament enjoying consensus of all political forces back in May 20, 2020.
Some say that for the lapse, Nepal’s inadequate diplomatic efforts were surely to be blamed. Others say that awarding of Hydro-projects to India and that too by snatching the same from China may have irked China to the hilt and thus the retribution.
Yet others say that after the ouster of Nepali monarchy, Nepal’s adherence to one China policy ceased to exist and thus the vengeance.
China perhaps is not going to compromise with Nepal’s avowed deviation in “One China Policy”.
Surely, Nepal has abandoned this policy to please some other forces; it is talked in political circuit of Kathmandu.
However, this scribe personally feels that China has lost its influence in Nepal after the unceremonious dismissal of Monarchy.
This scribe firmly believes that for the firing of the monarchy, China’s tacit understanding with India too could be one prime reason that in turn could have reduced the influence of China in Nepal.
The other poles have heavily dominated Nepali politics, for sure, after the expulsion of the Monarchy.
Moreover, the staunch supporters of China in Nepal got a dismal and almost unexpected setback when a Nepal hit by 7.9 quake on the Richter scale on April 25, 2015 had to listen that India and China have had inked a bilateral trade deal through the Lipulek/Kalapani/Limpiyadhura pass that solely belonged to Nepal and no advance permission was awarded by Nepal for the bilateral trade. This was an unauthorized bilateral trade.
China had also challenged Nepal’s sovereignty.
Unless the blunder is corrected, China may not receive the same free love and honor from Nepali population.
In this regard, Kathmandu’s Mayor Balen Sah’s cancellation of his five day long China trip is timely but mysterious?
Whether Balen’s cancellation of the China trip was his own brain or a planted advice is yet unclear.
Balen is taken these days as an erratic personality for his somewhat inconsistent behavior that doesn’t suit to his political stature.
Yet hope that such guts too are exhibited by India bend leaders who at times visit China under the fake credentials of Communism.
Nepali Communists are all the posted and paid agents of India, it is highly believed in Nepal.
China thus itself proved that it was not a reliable partner of Nepal as it used to be at time of Chairman Mao-Tse –Tung Deng-Xiao-Ping and Chou-en-Lai plus the days of Marshal Chen Yi.
Marshal Chen Yi while on a trip to Nepal way back in the early sixties had made it known to all that any attack on Nepal’s sovereignty shall be taken as an attack on China’s sovereignty as well.
That was a powerful message then made by China in favor of Nepal under King Mahendra.
By not recognizing Nepal’s new map, China has in an oblique manner given legality to India’s occupation of Nepali landmass in the far west.
Nepali nationals feel at times that China plays ‘double’ with Nepal while dealing with India. This forces Nepal to suspect China’s political credentials.
The new map of China in many more ways than one has subtly initiated the process of new alignments and realignments in between the countries affected by the Chinese fresh political step.
It is only Pakistan that has not been affected by China’s new map.
Hopefully it is only because of the Chinese deep engagement in the CPEC-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Pakistan is the single country in South Asia that has a smooth going with China or else….?
Some visible Geopolitical shift may take place that will for sure distance some countries from China who were hit hard by the new Chinese map. Conversely, some countries will inch closer to China as well.
The weaker ones, like Nepal as the tail of India, will have to digest the shame.
Nepal PM Dahal is soon visiting China and the host country knows well Dahal’s political indoctrination had taken place in India.
China apparently doesn’t take PM Dahal seriously for this underlying political reason.
Yet Chins is likely to send some messages in a subtle manner to India through Nepal Prime Minister hoping that it will be conveyed to whom it “concerns”.
China perhaps takes K. P. Oli too as India’s man. Oli’s straight links with RAW agency must not be a guarded secret for China, expectedly. Some even aallege that K. P. Oli is the inner coterie man of the Indian regime since the very days of the Mahakali River Ratification from the Nepali Parliament.
As a gift-prize, Indian regime managed the Kidney transplant of K. P. Oli.
It was this gesture of the Indian regime that K. P. Oli that made him loyal to the Indian regime.
People say that his intimacy with the RAW spy agency of India is extraordinary.
However, a clever Oli at times exhibits that he is the number one nationalist in Nepal.
Sources say that China is thinking on the restoration of King Gyanendra in the Nepali throne as it can’t leave Nepal to the mercy of India and the US for a variety of its own politico-security reasons. Fresh visit of King Gyanendra to Singapore reportedly was to meet representatives of PM Modi and President Xi. The meet went well, it is talked.
The much publicized meet of King Gyanendra with the sitting Army Chief Prabhu Ram Sharma too is meaningful.
By this October China’s inner minds on Nepal will be clear when President Xi greets President Vladimir Putin in Beijing.
Their talks in Beijing are likely to cover entire world politics including strategically important Nepal-now the official servant of India.
China is determined to restore Monarchy at any cost sooner than later.
The news that a high level Russian delegation is soon visiting nepal too adds to the gravity of the situation.
Russia too wants now to have a small but credible political lobby in Nepal.
Obviously, Russia wants to chase the US even in Nepal.
This means that China will double its activities in Nepal henceforth and the sitting Chinese Ambassador Chen Song has freshly given a subtle hint of China upcoming plans in Nepal.
“To have India as its immediate neighbor, Nepal is the most unfortunate nation”, is what Ambassador Chen Song said at a large gathering in Kathmandu recently.
This means that China will not allow India and the US to have the cake and it too.
After restoring King Gyanendra, Mrs. Bidya Devi Bhandari is China’s choice for Nepal Prime Minister, it is talked. Or who is the most preferred one? Keep on guessing.
That’s all.