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Date: Monday 8 February, 2010
You are here: Home » Analysis

India’s New Political maneuverings

N.P.Upadhyaya

Kathmandu: Politics is more than meets the eye.

There is in essence beyond the eye which the general people either ignore or take the things as is being given to understand.

More so, the Nepali politics is as gauche and conspiratorial as any thing as could be imagined.

Though, the rush to New Delhi, by some declared Indo-pendent Nepali leaders have been coined as a routine health check up, however, what is for sure is that the health check up was just a mere ruse to rush to Delhi to divert the attention of the larger segment of the society from the real issues.

The fact is that those who went to see their Indian masters did meet their preferred ones and have had pushed their basket of complaints against the ruling Maoists during their meet in Delhi.

The defeated United Marxists-Leninists leader Khadga Prasad Oli even told the Indian foreign minister Pranav Mukherjee In Delhi that “if the Maoists were not tamed on time, the entire South Asian region may see soon the flaring up of communal and caste hostility of the highest order”.

Minister Mukherjee is considered to be the number one heckler of the Nepal Maoists and Mr. Oli is presumed to be more Gandhian than Mahatma Gandhi itself.

Minister Mukherjee must have got the point after he was adequately briefed by visiting Nepal’s leader Oli.

Then enters into the New Delhi drama Nepal’s number one disparaging politician, Girija Prasad Koirala, whose abhorrence towards the Maoists perhaps needed no further explanation here as analysts presume that this remains no longer a secret now.

Koirala is the President of the Nepali Congress Party.

Nevertheless, what is also for sure is that it is this destructive political personality who brought the Maoists to Nepal’s Singh Durbar via New Delhi.

That Delhi remained instrumental in facilitating the Maoists to bounce to the power corridors of Nepal had recently been admitted by none less than by Indian Foreign Minister Pranav Mukherjee while talking to AL Jazeera Television this January. In effect, this TV interview of the Indian minister exposed the Indian establishment to the hilt.

But senior Koirala returned empty handed.

Sources in Delhi claim that the Italian Queen Sonia Gandhi-the de facto ruler of the incumbent Indian establishment, told Koirala point blank to support the Maoists led government by being a constituent of the same coalition set up and too at the earliest.

Compassionate and immature political brains may conclude that Sonia Gandhi favored peace and tranquility in Nepal.

Redundant and jocular conclusions that it is by all means.

The hidden message of Sonia Gandhi made to Koirala is to be in the Maoists led coalition until the India sponsored and drafted “extradition” treaty is signed by the Nepal government.

Sonia wants that practically all the political parties in Nepal, including the Nepali Congress, jointly and collectively favors this Indian draft proposal for sake of avoiding political debates and controversy back in Nepal. Clever Sonia! It is this inner desire that Sonia sounded to Koirala.

The destructive politician, read Koirala, took it as an “instruction” from Madame India and will perhaps okay the Indian draft proposal of the most controversial extradition treaty which is awaiting authoritative signature from both the countries.

In saying so, Sonia apparently hinted Koirala that after the said Extradition Treaty is signed, she can see to the possibilities of some other political equations which could replace the Maoists as desired by Nepali Congress President Koirala.

This does then mean that Sonia wants the Treaty get signed through the “skilled” and “structured” use of the Maoists in Nepal government which has the tacit support of the Nepali Congress as well.

The Extradition Treaty which India wants signed by Nepal government have some clauses and articles which allows the Indian establishment any third country national deportation to India from Nepal whom she considers that his or her continued presence in Nepal may have an impact on her security situation.

Any third country national thus should have to be deported to India by Nepal if India wanted his or her deportation.

The Target could well be first the Pakistanis and then the Chinese which may encompass later the Europeans and Americans.

Nepal Maoists are not that fool not to understand the Indian intrigues. Sensing in advance that Koirala and Oli could damage their prospects of continuing in power, Nepal PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal immediately sent his ailing Home Minister Bam Dev Gautam to Delhi under the same stunt of health check up.

Media sources claim that a day in advance prior to his Delhi visit, Minister Gautam had pocketed the photocopy of the “ready-to-be-signed” draft of the extradition treaty from his ministry in order to exhibit the Maoist government’s sincerity towards the Indian establishment.

Gautam is presumed to have shown the photocopy of the draft of the said treaty to the high placed New Delhi authorities and also could have assured the Indian side that it was only a matter of days and weeks the Treaty will be duly signed by the Nepal government.

Home Minister Gautam has already returned to Kathmandu after his “health-checkup”.

It should be in this light the Sonia Gandhi’s instructions to Koirala should be taken, analysts claim.

Back home, sensing the excessive flexible mood of the Maoists led government towards the Indian establishment, the Chinese regime too has become extra sensitive and is apparently pressing Nepal PM Dahal to fix the date of his impending China visit.

Understandably, the Chinese want that the fresh draft of Peace and Friendship Treaty which they have forwarded to Nepal PM Dahal be signed much ahead of the signing of the Indian draft of the extradition treaty. (The Chinese sensitivity has equally sensitized the democratic West).

Nepal PM Dahal is under immense pressure from both the sides and he can’t say no to either of the neighbors.

In a way, he is playing double with both of the immediate neighbors at his own peril.

This will be dangerous for him. If he lets down the Indian establishment then the next second he will be unseated as India has so many tentacles in Nepal posted here and there. The Chinese will hopefully, as usual, remain a mere onlooker in this government change game, if that does happen in real sense of the term.

But equally true is the fact that China will not settle for less this time come what may.

How Pushpa Kamal Dahal sails in the troubled waters is where his political acumen will be tested?

Definitely he is in between the fire and the frying pan. How he escapes from such a situation will further test his political maneuvering capabilities.

 Having said all these, Koirala upon his return to Kathmandu says to the Nepali media men, “Now I will restructure the entire political machinery in Nepal”. What does he mean? Sounds dangerous indeed.

Does he mean that he will dismantle the current government or the entire republican system?

Moreover, the nepali Congress President has told his party followers that his party may join the Maoist led coalition government.

Should this mean that his party will join this government as per the instructions of Sonia Gandhi?

How the Nepalese politics takes its course in the coming days will apparently make the political hotchpotch clearer.

2009-03-18 15:50:06

Comments (6)


Do the self proclaimed intellectuals know that extradition treaty is a mutual treaty and India provides the same rights to Nepal under the treaty?

Commented by Amit - April 8, 2009 @ 5:00 AM

Nepal: An emerging strategic arena between New Delhi and Beijing. From ANI New Delhi, Mar.21: If the growing Sino-Pak cooperation between Pakistan and China and Beijing's marine encirclement through its "String of Pearls" strategy is causing flutters in New Delhi, South Block mandarins should start an exercise in imaginative diplomacy to prevent the Chinese Dragon from rapidly expanding in India's eastern neighborhood. The Maoist-led government in Nepal is reportedly providing unconditional leverage to Beijing, even though it has in essence been India's next door neighbour and squabbled over "peripheral" issues like water, asymmetrical trade and migration. But with the end of kingship and the ouster of the Nepali Congress, the geo-politics of the region is undergoing a rapid change, a change not necessarily in favour of New Delhi. India is fast loosing its dominant status in this eastern backyard, as Beijing is planning to build a road link to Nepal and a railway network from Lhasa to Khasa. China has decided to upgrade the Kodari Highway, which connects Lhasa and Kathmandu with a bus service and build more strategic roads for the expansion of rising duty free trade with Nepal. It has also agreed to provide assistance worth about Rs 460 million (RMB 50 million) to Nepal for the construction of the Syaphrubesi-Rasuwagdhi Road. These road links are expected to be state of the art and modern, contrary to the degenerated traditional road links that are a distinct feature of the Terai plains straddling the Indo-Nepal border. Beijing is also expected to upstage the India financed East-West corridor. China is also eyeing on the vast pool of Nepal's hydel power. Analysts say Kathmandu has the potential to produce 80000 MW of power, but is currently generating just 500 MW. Sandwiched between the two energy starved Asian giants, Nepal has emerged as the new buffer zone after Tibet. Undeterred by Beijing's rising clout, policy makers in New Delhi still believe Nepal's bent towards China is only restricted to government-to-government interaction, and that the masses still look upto 'Big Brother'India. However, a reality check is in order. Chinese study centers that have sprouted across Nepal are working overtime to promote cultural interaction. They have become effective tools for advancing the Chinese perspective on key issues concerning Nepal. These centres also disseminate the benign role of China and caution Nepalis about India's hegemonic intentions. According to an IDSA article titled "Major Indicator of Growing Chinese Influence on Nepal", Nepal's crackdown on Tibetan protests in March and April last year at China's behest is a pointer to which way Kathmandu is leaning, and should serve as a wake up call for New Delhi. The Time magazine reports that Beijing has also deployed security officials inside Nepal to detect fleeing Tibetans and keep a lid on the unrest. India is apparently displeased over Prime Minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal alias Prachanda's demand for including Maoist rebels in the army. New Delhi is concerned that these rebels have deep links with Naxals in India and can prove to be very dangerous once they join the army. India anticipates that Nepal could become another Pakistan or Bangladesh if this step is taken. China tacitly supports the inclusion of rebels, but does reveal why. In India, there are fears that Maoists may end up establishing a China style single party rule in the former Kingdom. Despite repeated demands, the Maoists have not disbanded the Youth Communist league which is now called Youth Communist Democratic League, which still acts as a red brigade of vandals and has around 100,000 members. What is casting doubts over Prachanda's intention is that he is not insisting that the YCDL joins the party rank and file and the fact that he is encouraging them to continue with their struggle. It is time India employs smart diplomacy and cultivates geo-economic links with the Terai which today sends more than 200 legislators to the Nepalese Parliament. The residents of the Terai region constitute more than two-thirds of the country's population. To neutralise China's aggressive policies, India should proactively facilitate the infrastructure development of the Terai region and strengthen the hands of the Madheshi parties.

Commented by Naveen Kapoor - March 21, 2009 @ 6:29 AM

extradition treaty to india is much important than any thing. then the chinese influence. with rail link, china will come to kathmandu riding rail. this is it

Commented by dinesh rawal, USA - March 20, 2009 @ 7:26 AM

The condition about deportation of foreign national to India if India demands is is outrageous. This demeans the sovereignty of Nepal.

Commented by The Dark Lord - March 20, 2009 @ 3:55 AM

is koirala the chumcha of sonia? but she talked to koirala over phone. he could not se goddess sonia. poor koirala. this is his fate now. he is a no-goody in nepali politics. use and throw policy of indians.

Commented by s vastava currently in khatmandu - March 19, 2009 @ 3:44 AM

Good Luck Kamal Thapa.

Commented by Sanjay - March 18, 2009 @ 10:27 AM


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