N. P. Upadhyaya
Kathmandu: A dossier released by the Kremlin, Russian Federation, dated January 17, 2022, reiterates that President of Russia Vladimir Putin and the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan have had a long telephone conversations and the two leaders talked on various contemporary international issues of mutual concerns.
Needless to say, PM Khan and Vladimir Putin are in the same political wavelength over these years.
Afghanistan peace process and so many other international issues brought the two politicos closer much to the dismay and chagrin of Islamophobe Prime Minister Modi in Nepal’s neighborhood.
Who dialed first whom is immaterial, however, what is significant that the two leaders, one global leader and the other one almost South Asia’s near-to-a-regional power, exchanged their views and the, Kremlin claims that the, “discussions were focused on the development of the Russia-Pak ties in different areas, including trade, the economy, energy and the humanitarian sphere, as well as combatting the spread of corona virus infection”.
Afghanistan is missing in Putin’s readout but is registered in the Pakistani readout.
Media in Pakistan claim that this telephone call to Putin “signifies that the bilateral ties are slowly improving into a potential long term alliance.
In addition, Russia is perhaps more interested in Pakistan for the latter’s strategic location of being very close to Afghanistan and also in close proximity with the Central Asian States which were more or less an integral part of the now defunct Soviet Union-the USSR.
To recall, the Bishkek informal talks that took place in the Kyrgyz capital between the two political stalwarts, PM Imran Khan and President Vladimir Putin on June 13, 2019 brought the two “poles apart and estranged” countries together to an unimaginable level over a short period “due to some political compulsions”.
Wrote Niha Dagia for the Indian ‘Diplomat’, June 23, 2021, that “a volatile relationship between the US and Pakistan, the mounting confrontation between Moscow and Washington , and the growing U. S-India strategic partnership have given Pakistan and Russia a Machiavellian cause to reassess bilateral ties”.
She has recorded the Russia-Pak ties in its right perspective.
It was the Sanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meet in Bishkek that provided the platform to both PM Khan and President Putin to inch closer with each other in the “changed” political alignments in the globe and more so in South Asia which has been reeling under the atrocities of the South Asian expansionist heartless force-India- the established regional ruffian.
Needless to say, media reports claim that Asia is a goldmine of opportunities and choices for the major world powers.
Both the countries have had their own compelling necessities to patch up their political differences of the past and embark on a new path that was profitable to both Moscow and Islamabad.
And thus the two countries, Russia and Pakistan, have had the pressing demand to come in an organized manner as Pakistan was completely “ignored” by its Cold war ally-the USA and the Indian establishment had left the Russian Federation-the successor of the now defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR), in the deep blue ocean by joining the US camp.
If Pakistan needed a “world power” of the sort of the Russian Federation in lieu of the USA, then the latter, the Russian Federation- too was in the dire need to have a trustworthy partner in South Asia-the goldmine as it is taken now, which could “substitute” the trickster and an expansionist aggressor India.
Both the countries, Pakistan and Russia found a suitable alternative to their former Cold War partners.
So it is these new political orientations in the world that necessitated both Pakistan and the Russia to embark on a new journey of friendship which was given a political enhancement at the Bishkek meet in 2019.
The Kyrgyzstan meet thus proved to be a turning point in the ties of Moscow and Islamabad which is just awaits the positive results.
Since then, Pakistan and Russian Federation have come closer to an unimaginable level which has stunned not only the USA but this newfound relationship also has emerged as a potential threat to the Indian establishment which took the Indo-Russian friendship as a private property.
To a greater extent, Washington too is now obliged to approach Islamabad in a much more dignified fashion.
And this applies to Pakistan as well.
Pakistan can’t easily ignore the USA-its Cold war ally.
However, in international relations, friendship is made to serve its core national interests and that’s it.
This way, the increasing Pakistan and Russian Friendship is the demand of the global situation and such geo-alignments and realignments shall continue till such a bonhomie proves beneficial to both the “contracting” parties.
Or else, the process of new alignments and realignments gets repeated.
It is this need but not the choice, frankly speaking, which has brought the two “powers” together that is Islamabad close to Moscow and vice versa.
However, the need of the two countries not necessarily have most things in common.
Each country has its own specific choice and preferences suiting to its prime national interests.
Instead it is guided by their own national interests which the two countries assume to get served by the friendship with each other.
Moscow and Islamabad are closer to each other till their interests converge or get served.
If Russia wants to compete with the USA in South Asia by aligning with Pakistan then the latter too wants to exhibit to the world and more so to the USA that it could now join the Russian camp for obvious political reasons.
So the emergence of the new Pakistan-Russian axis is a natural phenomenon and a paradigm shift which is now in place to “balance” the global order.
The proximity that is in existence since a few years or so in between Russia, China and Pakistan could be taken as to have been obliged by the predominance of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which is a strategic security dialogue partnered by the United States, India, Japan and Australia.
The main political agenda of the QUAD is, as is being interpreted in some interested political quarters, to contain China.
The QUAD is talked to be the brainchild of the USA which has the trade/business turnover with China running in billions and billions.
As if QUAD were not enough, the US only recently created the AUKUS that comprises of Australia, the US and United Kingdom and this is also fashioned to “tame or contain” China.
This new security apparatus has annoyed France which says that it was betrayed by the countries housed in the AUKUS.
Thanks, India-the South Asian familiar bully has been kept out of the AUKUS.
South Asia sans India equals of permanent peace.
However, on the political plane the US concludes that it is China which if not disciplined on time may supersede its lone Super power status.
However, the hard reality that stands today does tell that China is already a world power almost at par with the United States, say knowledgeable sources even in the US.
China yet is not a reliable partner to smaller countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka.
With the advent of liberal President Joe Biden, expectations were high that the “confrontational attitude” in between the two, China and the US, shall be replaced by “competition or at best reconciliation”.
But it is not so in practice which is there for all to see which then compels China to befriend Russia.
And Russia has now reasons to value its ties with China as troubling Ukraine issue demands such a step.
And Pakistan being friendly to both is perhaps a perfect friendly match to both China and Russia for obvious political motives and reasons and the three, if wish to go along, can form much needed “axis” in the contemporary world which is sure to ensure world peace.
Should this mean that Islamabad, Beijing-Moscow coalition is round the corner?
China, Russia and Pakistan axis if it takes a formal shape then the strategic power balance is tentatively complete and real and the world peace is guaranteed.
Or in other words it could be implied that both Russia and Pakistan are shaping new era of strategic partnership.
Such opportunities make the South Asian region center of attraction of the world powers.
It has rightly been said by scholars that the world politics has now shifted to South Asia and if it so, then Moscow-Islamabad increasing cordiality bodes well for the entire South Asian region except Indian regime.
The Indian establishment, on one hand, in essence has joined the QUAD only to belittle the image of China through the use of its ties with the USA and on the other hand the US wants to “use and overuse” India under “uneducated” PM Modi to counter and compete China from all the possible angles.
The Dalai Lama’s “permanent” presence in India is a sort of “China card” for both India and the US.
Both India and the US would prefer to “tease” China from the Nepalese soil because from Kathmandu, to hit the Chinese underbelly-Tibet, is more easy presumably.
The effectiveness of the Dalai Lama appears to have gone down because of the quite “advanced” age of the Chinese/Tibetan political personality who can do no harm to China’s relations with the outside world by floating the long forgotten Tibetan issue in a “desired” manner aimed at pleasing other world powers.
Not to forget is also the fact that if India uses the China card alias the Dalai Lama then what is also for sure that China will increase its penetration and intrusion in the adjoining Indian Provinces more so China will try its best to hit the Chicken Neck , very close to Nepal’s eastern border.
India’s Arunachal Pradesh is adjacent to China from this Neck. China may break this Chicken neck if India cries foul against China. This is for sure.
The rush of India, China and the US in Kathmandu to increase influence perhaps speaks all these things unspoken. Question thus is Nepal being used just as “guinea pig”?
Keep on guessing.
Now back to Russia-Pakistan friendship:
To be candid, Moscow and Islamabad ties took an upward swing the day Ambassador Nikolai Kudashev stunned New Delhi regime, 21 December, 2020 when he spoke the Russian mind on Russia’s forthcoming ties with Pakistan-the arch rival of India.
Does this bonhomie signal the ushering of a grand “Islamabad-Moscow” coalition which has the silent endorsement of the Beijing authorities?
What hit the Indian regime most was Ambassador Kudashev’s statement wherein he bluntly stated that “Moscow’s relationship with Islamabad is to further develop and that it is “independent” of their ties with India.
Ambassador Kudashev spoke what India doesn’t want to listen even.
Let’s for the sake of expediency believe that this Russian political standpoint taken on Pakistan at Delhi’s press conference shaped the impending Islamabad-Moscow ties and gave it a new height.
Ambassador Kudashev had said, “Russia’s ties with Pakistan is independent in nature similar to our ties with India. We are going to develop this relationship (with Pakistan) further. We are focused on fighting terrorism, drug smuggling and other issues. It is based on the same values based on which we have ties with India”.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavarov soon took a flight to Islamabad from Delhi.
In April 2021, Russian FM Sergey Lavrov visited Islamabad after a gap of almost nine years. During the visit, he conveyed a message to Pakistani leadership on behalf of President Putin that Moscow was willing to extend all possible help to Islamabad, reported PTI (India), and dated January 25, 2022.
This was an open hint to Delhi that Russia has other friends too in South Asia.
It was this visit in which FM Lavarov gave a blank-cheque to Islamabad in 2021. (See telegraphnepal.com).
Notably and much to the humiliation of the Indian regime, Russia and Pakistan were an integral part of the Troika plus group which included Pakistan apart from Russia, China and the US to find peace with the Afghani Taliban in Doha.
In each and every talks designed by Russia (known as Russian format) for Afghan peace process, Pakistani presence is there and that was also endorsed by the US and China.
Thus Pakistan’s regional and International diplomatic image got enhanced in the process.
However, much ahead of Ambassador Kudashev’s “diplomatic” outbursts were made, Khan and Putin have had already forged “comfortable cordial” ties with each other on personal and country to country basis.
Now with PM Imran Khan talking over phone with Vladimir Putin does tell that Khan and Putin are on the same political page on matters pertaining to Afghanistan’s “humanitarian crisis”.
PM Imran Khan is supposed to have centered his talks with President Putin, January 17, 2022, on providing humanitarian assistance to the starving, and shivering Afghani people, children included.
Khan is learnt to have underscored that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan was pivotal for regional stability.
Afghanistan was facing dire humanitarian and economic challenges and support of the international community to the people of Afghanistan at this critical juncture remained vitally important, PM Khan hinted Putin.
Chances remain fair that Imran Khan may meet in person Vladimir Putin in Beijing early February, next month, at the inaugural ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Linda Lew, January 23, 2022, writes for the South China Morning Post that the Russian president is poised to be the first world leader to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in person since February 2020 and that the announcement comes at a time when major countries such as the US and Canada are considering a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
If everything goes smoothly then it is expected that the TROIKA- Khan, Putin, Xi Jinping, may speak with each other in Beijing shortly.
February 4, Putin is expected in Beijing and is slated to have talks with President Xi Jinping. President Putin is will seek support from Beijing in his growing conflict with the Western powers over Ukraine.
The likely hood is that if and when Russia attacks Ukraine then China will keep silence and the same will happen when Taiwan is attacked by China, Russia will keep silence.
The impending Russia-China summit February 2022, meet is perhaps intended to center talks on Ukraine and Taiwan.
In the meanwhile, a fresh news claims quoting BBC world service that the US has threatened to halt the opening of a key gas pipeline that would link Russian gas with Western Europe if and when Russia invades Ukraine.
A January 14, 2022, TASS news agency report quoting FM Sergei Lavarov says that “preparations for the Russia-China summit which will take place in Beijing on February 4, on the opening day of the Winter Olympics, are at full speed.
Delhi has now reasons to get disturbed as international media have reported that “Islamabad and Moscow are in serious talks to finalize the plan for what could be a landmark visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan this year, 2022.
Several media reports have claimed that Moscow wants that there must be big ticket projects’ for Pakistan or other initiatives that the Russian president would announce when he finally undertakes the trip to Pakistan.
The Press Trust of India quoting diplomatic sources has reported that Putin wanted to undertake the visit when he had something big to sell.
Pakistani media say that is keen that the visiting Russian President Putin inaugurates the more than USD 2 billion gas pipeline project and wants Russian companies to lay the pipeline inside Pakistan.
The project, according to the newspapers, is a flagship project that Moscow and Islamabad intend to undertake and enter into a new era of bilateral ties.
Moreover, “the two countries have already been holding regular joint military exercises since 2016 in another sign of deepening ties between Moscow and Islamabad and besides, the two countries also share the same view on key regional and international issues including Afghanistan as was evident from Khan’s and Putin’s verbal conversation over telephone on January 17, 2022.
The Military drill of Russia and Pakistan were in place much ahead of Khan assuming the Premiership.
The Dawn dated January 11, 2022, quotes senior retired diplomat Zamir Akram as saying that there exists the “convergence of strategic interests” between the two countries on peace and stability in Afghanistan, countering terrorism, and regional connectivity” in between the two countries.
He urged the government to engage Russian government and businesses in large scale projects in the country.
Yet another Russian scholar of international affairs in Moscow, Dr. Vladimir Sotnikov says that economic cooperation formed the most prospective area for developing convergences between Pakistan and Russia”, the Dawn reports.
Russian scholar Dr Irina Nikolaevna Serenko says the “nascent Pakistan-Russia defense ties can grow with time, but the two needed to build the relationship through economic cooperation particularly the conclusion of the agreement for the construction of the 1,100km gas pipeline called the Pak Stream Gas Pipeline.
In all, if this visit takes place that would for sure send a strong signal here and there which might change the foreign policy calculus of a country that has in the not so distant past ever taken India as its prime regional partner.
Is it a paradigm shift? If it is a shift, then it is surely to counter the USA and India in its own way.
But should Pakistan annoy the US-its former Cold War ally?
The general impression in South Asia is that Pakistan must not damage its long standing ties with the US for a variety of political and commercial reasons.
With all these events in the pipeline, Delhi’s blood pressure is sure to go up. That’s all.