Rabindra Bahadur Shrestha
Out of all the water on Earth, saline water in oceans/seas make up about 97% and only 3% is freshwater. Freshwater lakes like the Great Lakes of Africa, Russia and North America contain about 87% of this fresh surface water.
Brazil is in the top position having the most amount of renewable water resources of 8,233 cubic kilometer (km3), followed by Russia, US, Canada and China (fifth) 2840 km3, India (ninth) 1,911 km3. Nepal with 210 km3 stands in 43rd position as per Wikipedia.
[Rabindraji, please check the figures. I am not that sure!]
So there is a misconception that Nepal is the second richest country in water resources after Brazil.
Nevertheless, a century ago, British India and then Republic India, extracted lopsided water resources agreements from Nepal for India’s benefits. In the history of the world, no such one sided agreements exist between the two independent countries.
Exploitation of Nepal’s Water Resources – History
The first major water resources development project known as the Sarda Canal Project agreement was signed between Nepal and British India on 23rd August,1920 by exchange of letter between Prime Minister Chandra SJB Rana and Colonel Kennion, the Resident at the British Legation.
It was an extremely one-sided agreement, this Sarda Canal Project, irrigating about 4,000,000 acres of land in India. Nepal gets no irrigation benefit. The Rana ruler sold/exchanged 4,000 acres of land of Nepal for Rs 50,000 to facilitate barrage building. The Treaty of Mahakali renewed this Sarda agreement in ditto.
As Rana rulers were the puppets of British ruler, no one could do anything about this unequal agreement. However, the Republic of India also followed in suit.
The Indian bureaucrats, known as permanent government, having inherited the colonial mindset from 200 years of British rule, have visibly reflected that in water resources agreements with Nepal.
Nepal has a number of agreements/treaties with India on water resources development; Kosi Project (1954), Gandak Irrigation and Power Project (1959) and Integrated Development of the Mahakali River including Sarada Barrage, Tanakpur Barrage and Pancheshwar Project (1996).
The Kosi river is known as ‘Sorrow of ‘Bihar’ because the river has shifted about 120 km westward in the last 213 years, laying waste a huge tract of lands in north Bihar (Fig 4). The Kosi barrage project has anchored that river within Nepal and provides irrigation benefits to 2,400,000 acres of lands in India.
On the Nepal side, irrigation benefit is only for 60,000 acres of land. Large swathes of fertile land and settlements were flooded by the construction of the Kosi barrage and embankments. Little or no rehabilitation works were undertaken and the poor farmers in Nepal are still waiting for the compensation of their inundated land. Nepal was also supposed to receive, at a concessional rate, 10 MW of electricity from the Kataiya power house located on the Eastern Kosi Canal in India. This power house was, however, damaged in 2008 when the Kosi river broke through the Kusaha embankment leaving the Kosi Barrage high and dry. Ten years later, in 2018, this power house is waiting to be commissioned.
The Gandak Irrigation and Power Project irrigates 2,884,000 acres of land in India.
Nepal’s irrigation area is only 100,000 acres. Due to the Indian design of raising the tail-race level of power house, only 7 MW of 15 MW installed capacity is available – that also is not available due to siltation problem.
India, very much aware of the outdated 1920 Sarda Barrage, went ahead unilaterally in the 1980s to construct the Tanakpur barrage calling it a mere “hydroelectric project”. The barrage was completed in late 1980s, violating the ‘The Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers’. Initially, the tailrace water from the 120 MW hydroelectric project was connected directly to the Main Sarda canal that irrigates 2,880,000 acres of land in India. After Nepal’s complaint, the tailrace water was diverted back to the Mahakali River to flow into the Sarda Barrage. The 1920 Sarda agreement has quantified a small amount of Mahakali waters for Nepal use. But even the 1996 Mahakali Treaty failed to quantify India’s use. In lieu of the use of Nepalese lands at Tanakpur, India has consented to a token 70 million kWh of electricity free annually to Nepal.
This Integrated Mahakali Treaty renewed the 1920 Sarda agreement without any changes. As per the treaty, Nepal is supposed get equal benefits from the Pancheswar project, whereas Nepal virtually gets no benefit at all from the Tanakpur and Sarda projects.
The Detail Project Report (DPR) of Pancheswar Multipurpose Project (PMP) is still not ready even after 22 years of signing of the treaty. It appears that India, after getting all the benefits from Sarda and Tanakpur projects, has no interest at all to build Pancheshwar project from where Nepal is supposed to get maximum benefit.
So far, Nepal has not received any substantial benefits from any of the agreements concluded with India.
Misconceptions on Water Resources of Nepal
The perennial rivers of Nepal possess sufficient hydropower potential to enhance the country’s socio-economic development. The hydro power sector was performing reasonably well during 1970s and 80s.
However, some spurious experts and vested interest groups distorted the facts about water resources development prospects in Nepal. This has created confusion among the policymakers, politicians and multilateral agencies. As a result, hydropower development in Nepal is heading in the wrong direction and the power sector, the vital impetus for socio-economic development, is now in dire straits.
Some of the misconceptions and misunderstandings formulated with regard to Nepal’s water resources are:
- Nepal is the second richest country in hydropower after Brazil;
- Foreign and private investment alone can bring prosperity in Nepal;
- Nepal will be a rich country by exporting Hydropower/Electricity.
Reality 1: Dr Hari Man Shrestha, a prominent and pioneering scholar in water resources of Nepal, has estimated a theoretical 83,000 MW and economic 42,000 MW of power potential from three major river basins of Nepal in his doctorate thesis published in 1965. In the last 50 years, deforestation, land erosion and climate change has brought significant changes in the topography and hydrology of the rivers. Population growth, resettlement and environmental concerns have made many mega projects unfeasible. But the spurious experts, without any meticulous study, have propagated that Nepal has a hydropower potential of 200,000 MW.
Electricity generation from rivers can generally be divided in two categories, i.e. high dam reservoir type and run-of-river type. A high dam project has huge costs and environmental consequences; thus the development of run-of-river project gets apparent priority. Considering run-of-river project as 50 per cent, the estimated economic hydropower potential of Nepal comes down to about 21,000 MW.
As per site condition, the cost of developing a run-of-river project varies from $1,500 per kW to $5,000 per kW. Accordingly, the cost effective (1,500 $ per kW) run-of-river project with easy access to a road head is estimated to be about 10,000 MW to 12,000 MW. Even after adding costly projects, the available potential will be just enough to fulfill the power demand for another 30 to 40 years only. So far in 2017, Nepal has been able to generate only about 900 MW from its hydro potential, whereas the Brazil/Paraguay Itaipu Project alone generates 12,600 MW of power.
Thus, hydro potential and utilization level of Nepal can’t be compared with Brazil, which has already maximized its potentiality. Nevertheless, Nepalese Planner can always analyze the hydropower development modality of Brazil and adopt it according to the actual condition of Nepal.
Reality 2: Nepal launched a liberal economic policy and promulgated some laws in 1992 encouraging private sector investment in power sector. This law covers the entire power sector consisting of generation, transmission and distribution. In a hydro-based national electricity grid, the three components can’t be separated; the generated power/electricity is utilized simultaneously through transmission and distribution line.
But due to very high PPA rates (more than double of actual rate 3 US cent/kWh) the private investor has opted only for the more profitable hydro generation. The distribution sector, where private sector’s management skill is most required, was left to the public sector, Nepal Electricity Authority. In Khimti (60 MW) and Bhote Koshi (36 MW) projects, on average NEA pays about US$ 330,000 per year per one MW of power, i.e. a billion dollars during its agreement duration, which is enough to build six such projects.
A liberal economic policy has brought rapid industrial growth in many nations. But one should differentiate between cement/garment/shoes/noodle factories and hydropower development. Rivers have multipurpose usages – electricity, irrigation, water supply, navigation etc. Electricity generation from a river is carried out under the overall national planning of water resources development, having separate master plan for each of the component.
All the massive grand water resources projects like Hoover of USA, Bhakra Nangal of India, Itaipu of Brazil and Three Gorges of China are the outcome of national endeavor and public undertaking. But in Nepal, this vital job is expected to be carried out by private sector, whose development is still in its infancy.
Reality 3: To justify its fallacy, the so-called experts further added that:
- Nepal has 200,000 MW hydropower potential
- Government doesn’t have the capacity to build large projects and
- all economically feasible projects should be handed over to Indian companies for electricity export. Revenues earned and some free power from these Indian companies will make Nepal very rich like Singapore.
But the fact is, Nepal is in severe power crisis. Only 50 % of the population has access to electricity; more than 12 hours of load shedding per day is creating huge social hassles and industrial losses; per capita electrical energy consumption of about 170 kWh per year (India 700, China 4000, developed country up to 10,000 kWh) is lowest in the world but the electricity tariff is the highest in South Asia and about 500 MW of power is being imported in the dry season from the very country where export is being planned.
The government is planning to relinquish most of the economic hydropower projects to Indian companies for export of power to India – 900 MW Arun III, 900 MW Upper Karnali etc. Low cost energy of only 2 to 3 cent per kWh from these hydropower projects will no doubt boost the Indian economy/industry. But in an energy crisis situation, Nepal will be compelled to import the same energy from India at more than 10 cent per kWh.
First part of the paper by the distinguished author at a Kathmandu seminar on Development Strategy for Water Resources Management in Nepal, held on Friday, June 29, 2018 (Ashad 15, 2075), Organised by the Association of Former Career Ambassadors of Nepal (AFCAN).
The Paper was presented by Engineer Mohan R. Sakya at the program. (Thanks author, presenter and the organizer-Editor)