A twelve minute read.

 

Dinesh Bhattarai

Former Ambassador to the United Nations

& former Foreign Affairs Adviser to the PM of Nepal

Member of NCWA

Abstract:

Once the poorest and exploited at the hands of colonial powers, Asia’s breathtaking success has made it an economic weight and a formidable force in the world economy. The economic progress based on the unprecedented success of China followed by India initiated the shifting of the global power from Europe and North America to Asia. The growth in Asian economies shook the assumption of superiority of the West and created a sense that “Asia is the key to the future.” Asia’s emergence as the driving force of global economy and politics led political pundits to proclaim the 21st century as Asian century. Countries in the region displayed their capacities and potentials to firm up the proclamation. The shift eclipsed the American unipolar moment and led to the emergence of multi-polarity.

Asian states began to create and recreate relations among themselves. Big countries China and India moved from confrontation to cooperative relations that accelerated shifting the fulcrum of political and economic activity towards Asia. With the resurfacing of old wounds, suspicions, and threats, including the border clashes between China and India in 2020, Asian dynamism appears to be burdened with political unrests, ethnic tensions, populist nationalism and growing military tensions. It is against this backdrop that this write-up attempts to discuss the prospects of Asian century in the context of emerging socio-economic challenges including the outbreak of covid19 pandemic. Key words: Asian century, Europe, America, China, India, Power shift, Covid-19 Pandemic.

Background:

A century ago, the United States President Theodore Roosevelt, said, ‘Our future history will be more determined by our position on the Pacific facing China than by our position on the Atlantic facing Europe.’ Earlier U.S. Senator William H. Seward who later became the US Secretary of State from 1861-69, in 1852 had said, “… the Pacific Ocean, its shores, its islands, and the vast regions beyond, will become the chief theatre of events in the world.” This is what brings America to the Pacific.

Former US Secretary of Treasury Lawrence Summers wrote, “What is happening in Asia today is much more spectacular… living standards rise 100-fold within a single human life span. They rise more than living standards have increased in the US since the country gained independence in 1776. This is not an isolated event affecting 2 few people in some niche of the world. This is an event affecting a third or more of humanity.” He added, “No other event is as important today as the rise of Asia centered on China and followed by India. Growth has numerous ramifications for the global system. Developments in the Middle East- the region’s conflicts, troubles, and achievements – will probably be considered the second story in its importance. And the end of the Cold War- the 50-year struggle between the two economic and political systems will be assigned only third place in contemporary history.” The region has seen the rise of new powers, prosperity, and peace. “The development of Asia is so significant, and the impact of a growing Asia on the global economy is so substantial, that many other questions need to be raised. (Dinello and Wang, 2009).

“For the first time in 500 years” said former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans, “the center of global economic gravity is set to return to East Asia.” (Evans, 1993). In 2011, the then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proclaimed the 21st century as the Pacific Century. She wrote that the Asia-Pacific remains a key factor driving global politics. (Clinton, 2011). She called the 21st century “America’s Pacific Century.” US Intelligence assessment forecasts that Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power by 2030 with China, India, and Brazil becoming especially important to the global economy. The report also says: “Technology will continue to be the great leveler. The future Internet ‘moguls’ – as with today’s Google or Face book -sit on mountains of data and have more real-time information at their fingertips than most governments.” (Zakaria, 2012)

Several writings warn that Asia faces a series of internal and external shocks during the next 15-20 years in which low growth, rising food prices, and energy shortages will pose stiff challenges to governance. At a time when there are remarkable successes and strengths, and Asia awakes to reshape the world, many fear there could be surprises in the region. After the normalization of US-China relations, the US facilitated China’s integration into the world economy. China began opening up and reforms process in 1979. Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s counsel to his colleagues was “coolly observe, calmly deal with things, hold your position, hide your capacities, bide your time, accomplish things where possible.” China was weak then and not in a position to assert itself at the world stage so came the counsel “hide and bide your time,” maintaining a low profile. This prepared the ground for unprecedented progress. Today China stands tall as the second largest economy in the world and does not feel the need to “hide and bide” and has moved to “show and tell.” In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared the arrival of China to the global power center.

The unprecedented growth of China and its transformation from agrarian backwater, as Graham Allison writes, has made it the “biggest player in the history of the world.” Within the space of a few decades, writes Ashley Tellis, China has transformed itself from a predominantly agricultural economy into a manufacturing powerhouse, whose southern provinces were once described by The Economist as “the contemporary equivalent of 19th century Manchester-a workshop of the world.” (The Economist, 2002).

There was an outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. The crisis created turbulence around the world. Chinese views of “American power shifted profoundly, and that shift is reflected in China’s discourse on multipolarity and the international balance of forces” (Doshi, p. 161, 2022). There was a massive social and political awakening. As “geostrategic shift has been marked by the Asianization of world politics” (Dahal, 2022) and the center of economic gravity moving from Europe and North America to Asia, countries in the region have been displaying all their capacities and potentials to shape the 21st century- as the Asian Century. Asia-Pacific concept of the late 20th century became the Indo-Pacific which Japan calls to be free, open, and transparent. Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) of the US is not a new concept. It can be considered as a new name to the Asia Pacific, a regional strategy the US had developed to counter the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) during the Cold War. US President Trump in his 2017 November speech elevated the Indo-Pacific as the centerpiece of US regional strategy, turning confrontational towards China. The renaming ‘Indo-Pacific Region’, in place of Asia-Pacific, is interpreted as the recognition of the importance of India as the fulcrum of the regional strategic order. Beijing takes it as a ‘renewed strategy’ of the US to ‘counter China’s growing economic and political influence. The Indo-Pacific is the busiest and most strategically significant trade and energy corridor. On November 17, 2011, US President Barack Obama, addressing the Australian Parliament said, “Let there be no doubt: in the Asia-Pacific in the 21st century, the United States of America is all in.” It was, he said, a “deliberate and strategic decision.” America was “here to stay.” We seek the future in the Asia Pacific – security, prosperity, and dignity for all. That’s what we stand for. That’s who we are. That’s the future we will pursue, in partnership with allies and friends, and with every element of American power.” (Obama, 2011)

This shows how much the region holds the key to the future of US power. This is what has led Washington to declare the ‘pivot to Asia’ concept and try to show by actions to reassure its friends and allies in Asia about its continued presence. (The Economist, 2011)

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, after taking office, chose to make his first foreign visit to India in 2013. Writing in the Hindu of May 20, 2013, he said, “we live in an age of change but there are always certain things that are enduring forever refreshing and attractive. India is such a nation, at once old and young.” (The Hindu, 2013) Premier wrote, “the world looks to Asia to be the engine driving the global economy. This would be impossible without the two powerhouses of China and India. Our two countries need to work hand in hand if Asia is to become the anchor of world peace.

An Asian century that people expect would not come if China and India, the two most populous countries in the world, failed to live in harmony and achieve common development. Asia’s future hinges on China and India. If China and India live in harmony and prosper together and if our two markets converge, it will be a true blessing for Asia and the world a large. China’s development promises opportunities for India, and India’s development promises opportunities for China. Our common development will benefit people of the two countries and offer the world more and better opportunities” (The Hindu, 2013).
The resurgence of Asia in world affairs and the global economy which was happening before the emergence of Covid-19 will be cemented in a new world order after the crisis (Mahbubani, 2020). He argues further that Asia will have growing respect an admiration stating that through the quality of governance, Asia will show a culture of pragmatism, a willingness to learn, and follow the best practices from around the world, Amartya Sen, a noted economist and Nobel laureate opined that for societies to succeed they need the invisible hands of free markets and the visible hand of good governance Analysts have long talked about the end of an American-led system and the arrival of a Asian century which is now happening in front of our eyes (Berrel, 2020).

Promise or Peril?

Many predicted “the rise of the Asia-Pacific and an era of unparalleled Asian power prosperity, and peace,” and many believed that “East is replacing the West, in a great shift of global power that will permanently reshape our world. All those predictions now are themselves at risk” (Auslin, 2017). The true beginning of the 21st century was September 11, 2001- the day Islamic terrorists attacked America. It was a transformative moment of the post-Cold War order. Far reaching consequences arose from the 9/11 attacks. The US retaliated by launching the global war on terror in Afghanistan and Iraq. Fears of nuclear weapons technology used for illicit gains and falling into the hands of terrorists grew. The crisis undermined economic growth. Globalization stitched the world together, brought unprecedented opportunities, and also helped better the lives of the people around the world. China’s entry into the global economy created the most remarkable story of national progress. China was able to lift millions of people out of poverty. While globalization created profound interdependence prosperity, and security in one place came to be connected to actions or inactions with those outside the national frontiers. The euphoria created for the Asian century appears to be diluting. “While dynamic and peaceful on the surface, the continent is riddled with unseen threats from economic stagnation to political unrest and growing military tensions” (Auslin, 2017).

Further, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “Asia first misses the point” as the attention of the world is riveted on … Ukraine (Mead, 2022). Despite eighteen meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi including the visits to each other countries and meetings on the sidelines of international meetings since 2014, Sino-Indian relations could not be cemented. The 73-day Doklam stand-off along the Bhutan-China-India tri-border region in 2017, Sino-Indian border clashes of June 2020 and growing distance between these two formidable nations, and risks associated with them brought their differences and disputes on the border into sharp focus. Since then, India-China relations are not only slowing, but they also remain in a conflictual mode. India considers China as the greatest challenge to its security. China’s growing diplomatic, military, economic, and political footprints are viewed with grave concerns in India. India fears that its congenital foe, Pakistan- nuclear power state, is in a deep relationship with China, whose friendship has been characterized as “all-weather, higher than the Himalayas, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey.” Relations are being widened and deepened with a flagship project known as China-Pakistan Economic Partnership (CPEC).

China launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as “the project of the century” in 2013. This is considered a signature foreign policy and investment strategy of President Xi that would connect 64 Eurasian and African countries. Some even go to the extent of suggesting it as a “Chinese version of the world order.” China has now become assertive and is ascending.

The US and some European countries consider BRI as an instrument of putting countries in “debt traps” and increasing Beijing’s political influence in Africa and Asia. China is also reported to be planning to re-engineer transboundary river flows that form the artery of the Brahmaputra River system, of which India is a downstream country and critically depends on the flows of water. Beijing has begun to call the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh as “South Tibet” (Chellaney, 2019).
When Donald Trump was elected as the US President on the slogan of “America First” and “Make America Great Again”, the US retreat began from several international forums, yielding space to emerging power China. The increasing conflicting and competing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, chaotic withdrawal of America from Afghanistan after 20 years of military engagement, the current political mess in Syria and Yemen have opened space for rising China. China now heads four of the UN’s fifteen Specialized Agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organization, International Telecommunication Union, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, and International Civil Aviation Organization.
As the US suspended funding to the World Health Organization in 2020, China promised US$ 2 billion to fight the pandemic. The Economist writes “any retreat by America from global leadership an opportunity for China.”

The US considers China as a strategic competitor. European Union considers China “systemic rival”. China aspires to be a continental power and also wants to become maritime power. Beijing wants to protect and advance its interests abroad and secure what it sees as its rightful place in international affairs. China-US hostility is higher than it has been in decades. A veteran Chinese military specialist and scholar, Col. Li Mingfu, writes China’s great goal is to restore China to its historical glory and take the place of the US as a world leader. He sees the relationship between China and the US will be a “marathon contest” and the “duel of the century” (Liu, 2015). The US-Chinese talks in Anchorage, Alaska in March last year revealed the fiery exchange of word between the two delegations, telling each other not to preach.

The US considers China as its “foremost foreign policy challenge.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ha described China as the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century.”
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong writes the US remains an important participant, underpinning regional security and stability and enhancing its economic engagement through initiatives (Lee, 2021). For reasons of history, economics, an. security, “America is the most important external actor in Asia’s destiny” (Auslin, 2017).
The Covid-19 pandemic has been a “game-changer.” This has exposed the vulnerabilities of health systems and administrative capacities of several countries.

Democracy is in decline:
Populist nationalism is rising. Strongman’s theory is undermining nations institutions. This has impacted global security, stability, development, achievements conflicts, and troubles. Militaries have claimed the major portion of national budgets China, India, North Korea, and Pakistan are nuclear powers. Iran reportedly appears be close to enrich its uranium production. A yawning gap between the promises of rules and their performance and delivery has fueled resentment. As the awakening coin not match the aspirations and needs of the youth, the socially massive awakening go accumulated and radicalized politically. Trust between the rulers and ruled is eroding rapidly, and popular uprisings have created new regional dynamics. Youth bulge has created a pile of political tinder, producing insurmountable challenges, accumulate resentments, and uprisings turning the 21st century as an era of paradox.

Nepal – An anchor of stability and security:

Nepal’s geostrategic location between India and China forms the geopolitical heartland of Asia (Dahal, 2022) The location of Nepal explains its contemporary challenges Nepal borders four of India’s politically sensitive states and China’s Tibet Autonomous Region which constitutes its “core concern”. It is equally important to study mutually reinforcing ethnic linkages for peace, stability, and development in the entire region as ethnic linkages travel across the borders on both sides north and south. Geography is a nation’s destiny. Nepal should develop a strategic culture and have a geostrategy for the skillful management of geostrategic sensitivity for the preservation of its sovereignty and protection of territorial integrity. It must not ignore the dynamic transformation that is generating a new set of strategic uncertainties and ambiguities in the neighborhood and beyond. Nepal’s long-standing policy has been “friendship with all and enmity with none.” Kathmandu seeks goodwill, friendship, understanding, support and cooperation from its neighbors, friends and well-wishers in the international community. Of late, Nepal seems to be turning into a confluence of triangular interplay – American, Indian, and Chinese competition, and cooperation.
Development grant assistance of US$ 500 million provided to Nepal by the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Nepal Compact that invited sharp exchange of words between the US and China is a recent example of the growing interests and attention of global powers in Nepal. As the fulfillment of commitments to MCC got delayed due to political wrangling in Nepal, the US saw China’s hand in “fomenting propaganda” (Lu, 2022), and China called it American “coercive diplomacy.” Beijing questioned “does a gift come with the package of an ultimatum? How can anyone accept such a “gift”? Is it a “gift” or Pandora’s box?” (Chunying, 2022). This demonstrates the intersection of big powers’ geopolitical maneuverings and counter maneuverings.

In the ongoing geopolitical play of big powers, emerging global power China would try to push established global power America as far away from its borders as it could and reduce America’s weight in international diplomacy. As China vigorously pursues peripheral diplomacy with security, diplomacy and economics’ as its components, the US would try to influence China’s neighbors to contain and provide a counterweight to Chinese dominance. They would adopt whatever means they find it convenient. As Greek historian, Thucydides wrote, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

 

Nepal pursues democratic pluralism at home and multipolarity in international relations and judges every issue on its merits without fear or favor. Nepal has to do tight rope walking and maintain the balancing behavior with all nations. There can be no question of Nepal taking the side of any country. Nepal needs neighbors India and China as well as the US. It also needs the United Nations and friends in the international community. Nepal needs their goodwill, support, and cooperation for its socio-economic transformation. Nepal does not want any geostrategic maneuverings and counter-maneuverings against its neighbors and friends from its territory. Nepal remains constructively engaged wit neighbours, development partners and friends in international community, on the basi of mutual benefits and respect to advance its interests, expects them not to cross an red lines that destabilize the country or hurt its interests and deprive it of its legitimam aspirations. They all should understand that only an independent, stable, democratic and prosperous Nepal will be the anchor of regional stability and security and in the interests of all.

Conclusion:

The world has become more interdependent and interconnected. Nations’ destinies have come to be intertwined. No nation, no matter how powerful, will be able to shape all the rules in its own image. It will need to be cooperative and confident. A more responsible, pragmatic, and principled approach is needed to lift hundreds of million out of poverty. Important issues such as climate change, pandemic, nuclear proliferation and other transnational issues that threaten the existence of the entire humanity nee close cooperation and coordination of all-big or small nations alike. This is time to come together, work together to preserve Asia’s incredible success and influence is subsequent development” (Auslin, 2017).

Today’s realities of the world include the US preeminence and China’s rapid rise the status of global power. The established power US and emerging power China have shared interests and therefore shared responsibilities. They shall have to learn to live with each other, work together and cooperate on areas such as economics, transnational issues like climate change, nonproliferation, terrorism and counterterrorism, education and tourism. India’s cooperation to address these issues is vital. Without India on board there would be no peace, stability, and development at the regional level in particular and the world in general. There is no Asian century unless India and China com together. No Asian century can come until China, India and other neighboring countria are developed.

The then Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali visited the US at the invitation his counterpart Mike Pompeo in December 2018. Coinciding with Minister Gyawali visit, the US Department of State issued a statement mentioning that Nepal too hat a “central role to play in the Indo-Pacific region.” Upon return to Nepal, Ministe Gyawali “outrightly rejected reports about Nepal supporting the Indo-Pacific strateg of the US” (Gyawali, 2018). Addressing the 76th UN General Assembly, Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka underlined “the principles and purposes of the UN Charter, non-alignment, international law, and norms of world peace constituting the important ingredients of Nepal’s foreign policy.” (Khadka, 2021) He expressed abiding faith in Panchsheel- the five principles peaceful co-existence as a framework for interstate relations in the twenty first century. These principles remain of paramount importance in the conduct of Nepal’s foreign policy. Explaining the recent Nepal vote on the Ukraine issue in the UN, the Minister clarified that “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was against the sovereignty of a nation. Nepal’s vote was against the invasion. It is as per the UN Charter, non-alignment, and international treaties, and not about taking sides.” (Khadka:2022) This firmly establishes the point that Nepal remains a truly non-aligned country, and there is no question of Nepal taking any sides.

End text.
Text courtesy: Nepal Council of World Affairs ( NCWA) Annual Journal, 2022.
Journal received through the kind courtesy of Buddhi Narayan Shrestha-the Vice President of the NCWA.
# Thanks the distinguished author and the entire NCWA executive team.
Our contact email address is: editor.telegraphnepal@gmail.com

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Concluded.